IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jfsres/v44y2013i1p111-129.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures

Author

Listed:
  • Chiara Pederzoli
  • Grid Thoma
  • Costanza Torricelli

Abstract

Small-medium enterprises (SMEs) encounter financial constraints when they try to obtain credit from banks. These constraints are particularly severe for innovative SMEs. Thus, developing models for innovative SMEs that provide reliable estimates of their probabilities of default (PD) is important because the PDs can also serve as ratings. We examine the role of innovative assets such as patents in credit risk modelling due to their signaling value. Specifically, we add to a logit model two innovation-related variables in order to account for both the dimension and the value of the patent portfolio. Based on a unique data set of innovative SMEs with default years of 2005–2008, we show that, although the value of the patent portfolio always reduces the PD, its dimension reduces the firm’s riskiness only if coupled with an appropriate equity level. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2013. "Modelling Credit Risk for Innovative SMEs: the Role of Innovation Measures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 111-129, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:111-129
    DOI: 10.1007/s10693-012-0152-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10693-012-0152-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10693-012-0152-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hainz, Christa, 2010. "Default rates in the loan market for SMEs: Evidence from Slovakia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 133-147, June.
    2. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    3. Bronwyn H. Hall & Grid Thoma & Salvatore Torrisi, 2006. "The market value of patents and R&D: Evidence from European firms," KITeS Working Papers 186, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Nov 2006.
    4. Manuel Trajtenberg, 1990. "A Penny for Your Quotes: Patent Citations and the Value of Innovations," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 21(1), pages 172-187, Spring.
    5. Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Using Innovation Surveys for Econometric Analysis," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1129-1155, Elsevier.
    6. repec:fth:harver:1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D: The Depreciation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Contributions in Memory of Zvi Griliches, pages 341-381, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Edward Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2005. "Effects of the New Basel Capital Accord on Bank Capital Requirements for SMEs," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 28(1), pages 15-42, October.
    9. Grid Thoma & Salvatore Torrisi & Alfonso Gambardella & Dominique Guellec & Bronwyn H. Hall & Dietmar Harhoff, 2010. "Harmonizing and Combining Large Datasets - An Application to Firm-Level Patent and Accounting Data," NBER Working Papers 15851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy: A Discriminant Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(1), pages 193-194, March.
    11. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Lerner, Josh, 2010. "The Financing of R&D and Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 609-639, Elsevier.
    12. Guellec, Dominique & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno v., 2000. "Applications, grants and the value of patent," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 109-114, October.
    13. James R. Brown & Steven M. Fazzari & Bruce C. Petersen, 2009. "Financing Innovation and Growth: Cash Flow, External Equity, and the 1990s R&D Boom," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(1), pages 151-185, February.
    14. Robert E. Carpenter & Bruce C. Petersen, 2002. "Capital Market Imperfections, High-Tech Investment, and New Equity Financing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(477), pages 54-72, February.
    15. Bronwyn H. Hall & Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg, 2001. "The NBER Patent Citation Data File: Lessons, Insights and Methodological Tools," NBER Working Papers 8498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Grunert, Jens & Norden, Lars & Weber, Martin, 2005. "The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 509-531, February.
    17. Beaver, Wh, 1966. "Financial Ratios As Predictors Of Failure," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4, pages 71-111.
    18. Kenneth J. Arrow, 1975. "Vertical Integration and Communication," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 6(1), pages 173-183, Spring.
    19. Beck, T.H.L. & Demirgüc-Kunt, A. & Martinez Peria, M., 2011. "Banking financing for SME's : Evidence across countries and bank ownership types," Other publications TiSEM c4d491c9-2cc6-40f6-ad55-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    20. Harhoff, Dietmar & Gambardella, Alfonso & Verspagen, Bart, 2008. "The Value of European Patents," CEPR Discussion Papers 6848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Allen Berger & Adrian Cowan & W. Frame, 2011. "The Surprising Use of Credit Scoring in Small Business Lending by Community Banks and the Attendant Effects on Credit Availability, Risk, and Profitability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 1-17, April.
    22. Bronwyn Hall, 2004. "The financing of research and development," Chapters, in: Anthony Bartzokas & Sunil Mani (ed.), Financial Systems, Corporate Investment in Innovation, and Venture Capital, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    23. William R. Kerr & Josh Lerner & Antoinette Schoar, 2010. "The Consequences of Entrepreneurial Finance: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," NBER Working Papers 15831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Denis, David J., 2004. "Entrepreneurial finance: an overview of the issues and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 301-326, March.
    25. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0022, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    26. Chiara Pederzoli & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "A parsimonious default prediction model for Italian SMEs," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 10061, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    27. Zvi Griliches, 1998. "Patent Statistics as Economic Indicators: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: R&D and Productivity: The Econometric Evidence, pages 287-343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    29. Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), 2010. "Handbook of the Economics of Innovation," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    30. Edward I. Altman & Gabriele Sabato, 2013. "MODELING CREDIT RISK FOR SMEs: EVIDENCE FROM THE US MARKET," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Oliviero Roggi & Edward I Altman (ed.), Managing and Measuring Risk Emerging Global Standards and Regulations After the Financial Crisis, chapter 9, pages 251-279, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    31. Ohlson, Ja, 1980. "Financial Ratios And The Probabilistic Prediction Of Bankruptcy," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 109-131.
    32. repec:adr:anecst:y:2005:i:79-80:p:14 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Guellec, Dominique & van Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno, 2007. "The Economics of the European Patent System: IP Policy for Innovation and Competition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199216987.
    34. Dietmar Harhoff, 1996. "Strategic Spillovers and Incentives for Research and Development," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(6), pages 907-925, June.
    35. Joshua Lerner, 1994. "The Importance of Patent Scope: An Empirical Analysis," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 319-333, Summer.
    36. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & María Pería, 2011. "Bank Financing for SMEs: Evidence Across Countries and Bank Ownership Types," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 39(1), pages 35-54, April.
    37. Harhoff, Dietmar & Korting, Timm, 1998. "Lending relationships in Germany - Empirical evidence from survey data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1317-1353, October.
    38. Harhoff, Dietmar & Körting, Timm, 1998. "Lending Relationships in Germany: Empirical Results from Survey Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 1917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. MOTOHASHI Kazuyuki, 2011. "Innovation and Entrepreneurship: A first look at linkage data of Japanese patent and enterprise census," Discussion papers 11007, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    40. Hielke Buddelmeyer & Paul H. Jensen & Elizabeth Webster, 2010. "Innovation and the determinants of company survival," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 261-285, April.
    41. Jean O. Lanjouw & Mark Schankerman, 2004. "Patent Quality and Research Productivity: Measuring Innovation with Multiple Indicators," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(495), pages 441-465, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ziqin Yu & Xiang Xiao, 2022. "Shadow banking contraction and innovation efficiency of tech-based SMEs-based on the implementation of China’s New Asset Management Regulation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(2), pages 251-275, June.
    2. Francesco Ciampi & Alessandro Giannozzi & Giacomo Marzi & Edward I. Altman, 2021. "Rethinking SME default prediction: a systematic literature review and future perspectives," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(3), pages 2141-2188, March.
    3. Meles, Antonio & Salerno, Dario & Sampagnaro, Gabriele & Verdoliva, Vincenzo & Zhang, Jianing, 2023. "The influence of green innovation on default risk: Evidence from Europe," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 692-710.
    4. Rahman Ashiqur & Belas Jaroslav & Rahman M. Twyeafur, 2017. "Determinants of SME Finance: Evidence from Three Central European Countries," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(3), pages 263-285, September.
    5. C. Pederzoli & C. Torricelli, 2013. "Efficiency and unbiasedness of corn futures markets: new evidence across the financial crisis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(24), pages 1853-1863, December.
    6. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Wang, Chih-Wei & Ho, Shan-Ju, 2020. "Financial innovation and bank growth: The role of institutional environments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    7. Stefano Cosma & Elisabetta Gualandri, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: the impact on the intermediation model of Italian banks," BANCARIA, Bancaria Editrice, vol. 2, pages 48-60, February.
    8. Jiang, Cuiqing & Zhou, Yiru & Chen, Bo, 2023. "Mining semantic features in patent text for financial distress prediction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    9. Sungmoon Jung & Gihyun Kwak, 2018. "Firm Characteristics, Uncertainty and Research and Development (R&D) Investment: The Role of Size and Innovation Capacity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-14, May.
    10. Yu Zhao & Huaming Du & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "A Comprehensive Survey on Enterprise Financial Risk Analysis from Big Data Perspective," Papers 2211.14997, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    11. Elisabetta Gualandri & Valeria Venturelli, 2013. "The financing of Italian firms and the credit crunch: findings and exit strategies," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 13101, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    12. Yehui Tong & Zelia Serrasqueiro, 2020. "The Influential Factors on Capital Structure: A Study on Portuguese High Technology and Medium-High Technology Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 11(4), pages 23-35, July.
    13. Andreeva, Galina & Calabrese, Raffaella & Osmetti, Silvia Angela, 2016. "A comparative analysis of the UK and Italian small businesses using Generalised Extreme Value models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 506-516.
    14. Yao-Zhi Xu & Jian-Lin Zhang & Ying Hua & Lin-Yue Wang, 2019. "Dynamic Credit Risk Evaluation Method for E-Commerce Sellers Based on a Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    15. Shusen Qi & Steven Ongena, 2020. "Fuel the Engine: Bank Credit and Firm Innovation," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 115-147, April.
    16. Marianna Succurro & Giuseppina Damiana Costanzo, 2019. "Ownership structure and firm patenting activity in Italy," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 239-266, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chiara Pederzoli & Grid Thoma & Costanza Torricelli, 2011. "Modelling credit risk for innovative firms: the role of innovation measures," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0025, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    2. Elisa Ughetto & Andrea Vezzulli, 2011. "What role can mutual guarantee consortia play for financing innovation? A firm-level study for Italy," International Journal of Banking, Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(4), pages 294-319.
    3. fernández, María t. Tascón & gutiérrez, Francisco J. Castaño, 2012. "Variables y Modelos Para La Identificación y Predicción Del Fracaso Empresarial: Revisión de La Investigación Empírica Reciente," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 7-58.
    4. Simon Cornée, 2014. "Soft Information and Default Prediction in Cooperative and Social Banks," Journal of Entrepreneurial and Organizational Diversity, European Research Institute on Cooperative and Social Enterprises, vol. 3(1), pages 89-103, June.
    5. Francesco Ciampi & Valentina Cillo & Fabio Fiano, 2020. "Combining Kohonen maps and prior payment behavior for small enterprise default prediction," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1007-1039, April.
    6. Ana Paula Matias Gama & Helena Susana Amaral Geraldes, 2012. "Credit risk assessment and the impact of the New Basel Capital Accord on small and medium‐sized enterprises," Management Research Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 35(8), pages 727-749, July.
    7. Bai, Qing & Tian, Shaonan, 2020. "Innovate or die: Corporate innovation and bankruptcy forecasts," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 88-108.
    8. Chang, Hsiu-yun & Liang, Woan-lih & Wang, Yanzhi, 2019. "Do institutional investors still encourage patent-based innovation after the tech bubble period?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 149-164.
    9. Christof Ernst & Katharina Richter & Nadine Riedel, 2014. "Corporate taxation and the quality of research and development," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 21(4), pages 694-719, August.
    10. Martin Kukuk & Michael Rönnberg, 2013. "Corporate credit default models: a mixed logit approach," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 467-483, April.
    11. Meuleman, Miguel & De Maeseneire, Wouter, 2012. "Do R&D subsidies affect SMEs’ access to external financing?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 580-591.
    12. Martin Kalthaus, 2020. "Knowledge recombination along the technology life cycle," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 643-704, July.
    13. David Hirshleifer & Po-Hsuan Hsu & Dongmei Li, 2018. "Innovative Originality, Profitability, and Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2553-2605.
    14. Darcy, Jacques & Krämer-Eis, Helmut & Guellec, Dominique & Debande, Olivier, 2009. "Financing technology transfer," EIB Papers 10/2009, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
    15. Jairaj Gupta & Nicholas Wilson & Andros Gregoriou & Jerome Healy, 2014. "The value of operating cash flow in modelling credit risk for SMEs," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 649-660, May.
    16. Zhichao Luo & Pingyu Hsu & Ni Xu, 2020. "SME Default Prediction Framework with the Effective Use of External Public Credit Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-18, September.
    17. Leonardo Becchetti & Annalisa Castelli & Iftekhar Hasan, 2010. "Investment–cash flow sensitivities, credit rationing and financing constraints in small and medium-sized firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 467-497, November.
    18. Acharya, Viral & Xu, Zhaoxia, 2017. "Financial dependence and innovation: The case of public versus private firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 223-243.
    19. Stefan Kipar, 2012. "Determinants of Firm Innovation - Evidence from German Panel Data," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 45.
    20. Bronwyn H. Hall, 2010. "The Financing of Innovative Firms," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 1(1).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Innovative small-medium enterprises; Default probability; Patent value; R&D productivity; G21; G32; C25; O34;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • O34 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Intellectual Property and Intellectual Capital

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jfsres:v:44:y:2013:i:1:p:111-129. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.