What has been the impact of the 2008 crisis on firms’ default? (in French)
The acceleration of the firm failure rate in France between 2008 and 2010 was preceded by a surge in the number of firms’ creations in 2003-2004. Therefore, identifying the impact of the 2008 crisis requires to distinguish, among the failures occurring over the period, those resulting from the crisis from hose mechanically stemming from firm demography, as we know that many firms disappear during their first years of existence. Our study was conducted using the universe of firms created between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2007. This sample is extracted from the database managed by the Companies Direction at Banque de France. The lack of complete information on firms created before 2000 led us to restrict the sample to newly created firms, but the period under study is long enough to encompass the increase in the number of firm creation in 2003-2004. The originality of this study lies both in the sample size and in the richness of the data used. Our statistical analysis focuses on the period between the date of the firm creation and of its first failure. The impact of the crisis is estimated using a flexible duration model, stratified according to the date of creation. The model takes into account the effects of the company age at the failure date, its industry, its size and the sequence of dates associated with its payment incidents on trade bills. We examine more specifically the failure rates in four industries: retail trade, transport, manufacturing and construction. The proportion of failures due to the crisis varies greatly across these four sectors. On average, the impact of the 2008 crisis has been of 27% in retail trade, 35% in transports, 43 % in manufacturing and 46 % in construction. Younger firms, namely those created in 2006 and 2007, were the most affected by the crisis.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Banque de France 31 Rue Croix des Petits Champs LABOLOG - 49-1404 75049 PARIS|
Web page: http://www.banque-france.fr/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Kremp, Elizabeth & Sevestre, Patrick, 2013.
"Did the crisis induce credit rationing for French SMEs?,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3757-3772.
- Kremp, E. & Sevestre, P., 2012. "Did the crisis induce credit rationing for French SMEs?," Working papers 405, Banque de France.
- Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
- Ridder, Geert & Tunali, Insan, 1999.
"Stratified partial likelihood estimation,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 193-232, October.
- Timothy Dunne & Mark J. Roberts & Larry Samuelson, 1989.
"The Growth and Failure of U. S. Manufacturing Plants,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 104(4), pages 671-698.
- Dunne, T. & Roberts, M.J. & Samuelson, L., 1988. "The Growth And Failure Of U.S. Manufacturing Plants," Papers 1-87-5, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.
- David Neumark & Brandon Wall & Junfu Zhang, 2008. "Do Small Businesses Create More Jobs? New Evidence from the National Establishment Time Series," NBER Working Papers 13818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Audretsch, David B & Mahmood, Talat, 1995. "New Firm Survival: New Results Using a Hazard Function," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(1), pages 97-103, February.
- Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2009.
"The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 91(1), pages 20-32, February.
- Aghion, Philippe & Blundell, Richard & Griffith, Rachel & Howitt, Peter & Prantl, Susanne, 2006. "The effects of entry on incumbent innovation and productivity," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Competition and Innovation SP II 2006-18, Social Science Research Center Berlin (WZB).
- Richard, Blundell & Rachel, Griffith & Peter, Howitt & Susanne, Prantl & Aghion, Philippe, 2009. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," Scholarly Articles 4554222, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Blundell, Richard William & Griffith, Rachel & Howitt, Peter & Prantl, Susanne, 2005. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," CEPR Discussion Papers 5323, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Aghion & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt & Susanne Prantl, 2006. "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," NBER Working Papers 12027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007.
"Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-373, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darrel Duffie & Leandro Saita & Ke Wang, 2005. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," CARF F-Series CARF-F-047, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Coad, Alex & Rao, Rekha, 2008.
"Innovation and firm growth in high-tech sectors: A quantile regression approach,"
Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 633-648, May.
- Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2007. "Innovation and Firm Growth in High-Tech Sectors: A Quantile Regression Approach," Open Discussion Papers in Economics 57, The Open University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Economics.
- Alex Coad & Rekha Rao, 2006. "Innovation and Firm Growth in High-Tech Sectors: A Quantile Regression Approach," LEM Papers Series 2006/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Altman, Edward I. & Marco, Giancarlo & Varetto, Franco, 1994. "Corporate distress diagnosis: Comparisons using linear discriminant analysis and neural networks (the Italian experience)," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 505-529, May.
- Terry J. Ward & Benjamin P. Foster, 1997. "A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 869-879.
- Jaap H. Abbring & Gerard J. van den Berg, 2003. "The Nonparametric Identification of Treatment Effects in Duration Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1491-1517, 09.
- Cathy Dolignon, 2011. "Facteurs explicatifs des évolutions récentes des défaillances d’entreprises : une analyse économétrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 197(1), pages 161-167.
- P.A. Geroski & José Mata & Pedro Portugal, 2003.
"Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms,"
w200301, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- Morris James R, 2009. "Life and Death of Businesses: A Review of Research on Firm Mortality," Journal of Business Valuation and Economic Loss Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41, October.
- Audretsch, David B, 1991. "New-Firm Survival and the Technological Regime," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(3), pages 441-50, August.
- Agarwal, Rajshree & Audretsch, David B, 2001. "Does Entry Size Matter? The Impact of the Life Cycle and Technology on Firm Survival," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 21-43, March.
- Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael brassart)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.