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Facteurs explicatifs des évolutions récentes des défaillances d’entreprises : une analyse économétrique

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  • Cathy Dolignon

Abstract

[eng] The monthly index of business failures measures the number of enterprises for which a court-ordered reorganisation has been initiated. While the indicator is naturally influenced by current economic trends , it also depends on past business-creation trends. The vector error-correction model (VECM) described here makes it possible to distinguish between these two effects. We show that the increase in the number of business failures in 2008 was mainly due to a demographic effect, while the 2009 increase was the result of highly negative economic conditions. The persistence of a large number of failures in the first half of 2010 may be due to the expiration of stimulus measures. We also examine the effects of the introduction of the “ freelance entrepreneur ” (auto-entrepreneur) status in 2009. [fre] Les défaillances d’entreprises mesurent chaque mois le nombre d’entreprises en redressement judiciaire. Si cette statistique est naturellement influencée par les évolutions de la conjoncture économique, elle dépend également des évolutions passées des créations d’entreprises. Le modèle vectoriel à correction d’erreur proposé dans cet article permet de faire la part entre ces deux effets. Il montre que l’augmentation des défaillances en 2008 résulte principalement d’un effet démographique et, en 2009, d’une conjoncture très dégradée. Le nombre encore élevé de défaillances observé au premier semestre 2010 pourrait être lié à la fin des mesures de relance. Les effets inhérents à la création du statut d’auto-entrepreneur en 2009 sont également étudiés.

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  • Cathy Dolignon, 2011. "Facteurs explicatifs des évolutions récentes des défaillances d’entreprises : une analyse économétrique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 197(1), pages 161-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2011_num_197_1_8085
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2011.8085
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2011.8085
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    Cited by:

    1. Buttin, E., 2016. "Les green bonds : solution au financement de la transition ou effet de mode ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 208, pages 21-28.
    2. Giuseppe Arcuri & Marc Brunetto & Nadine Levratto, 2019. "Spatial patterns and determinants of firm exit: an empirical analysis on France," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 62(1), pages 99-118, February.
    3. Fougère, D. & Golfier, C. & Horny, G. & Kremp, E., 2013. "What has been the impact of the 2008 crisis on firms’ default? (in French)," Working papers 463, Banque de France.
    4. Cabrillac, B. & Gauvin, L. & Gossé, L., 2016. "Les obligations indexées sur le PIB : quels bénéfices pour les émetteurs, les investisseurs et la stabilité financière internationale ?," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 208, pages 5-20.
    5. Bureau, B. & Libert, T., 2016. "Enjeux économiques des défaillances d’entreprises en France," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 208, pages 55-63.
    6. Boileau, A. & Carlino, L. & Lafon, A.-S., 2016. "Au premier semestre 2016, les principaux groupes français renforcent leur profitabilité," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 208, pages 43-54.
    7. Coffinet, J. & Jadeau, C. & Perillaud, S., 2016. "Tendances récentes du crédit à la consommation," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 208, pages 29-41.

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