Indicators of corporate default : an EU based empirical study
The present paper contributes to the research on the indicators that provide a warning of company failure by employing micro and macro variables within a framework of survival analysis using a sample of 0.4 million companies from the European Union (EU). The sensitivity of the results is checked using two complementary event definitions - bankruptcy and negative equity. Our results imply that the baseline hazard of a default is a U-shaped function of the time the company has survived. High leverage and a low return on assets appear to be strong predictors of failure. Macroeconomic variables give mixed evidence for old and new member states as well as for the two default definitions
|Date of creation:||04 Sep 2007|
|Date of revision:||04 Sep 2007|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.bankofestonia.info
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Postal: Estonia bld. 13, 15095 Tallinn, ESTONIA|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- S. Balcaen & H. Ooghe, 2004. "35 years of studies on business failure: an overview of the classical statistical methodologiesand their related problems," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/248, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Dimitras, A. I. & Zanakis, S. H. & Zopounidis, C., 1996. "A survey of business failures with an emphasis on prediction methods and industrial applications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 487-513, May.
- Kahya, Emel & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 1999. " Predicting Corporate Financial Distress: A Time-Series CUSUM Methodology," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 323-45, December.
- Shumway, Tyler, 2001. "Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 101-24, January.
- Terry J. Ward & Benjamin P. Foster, 1997. "A Note on Selecting a Response Measure for Financial Distress," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(6), pages 869-879.
- Crouhy, Michel & Galai, Dan & Mark, Robert, 2001. "Prototype risk rating system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 47-95, January.
- Luoma, M & Laitinen, EK, 1991. "Survival analysis as a tool for company failure prediction," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 673-678.
- Teija Laitinen & Maria Kankaanpaa, 1999. "Comparative analysis of failure prediction methods: the Finnish case," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 67-92.
- Balcaen S. & Ooghe H., 2004.
"Alternative methodologies in studies on business failure: do they produce better results than the classic statistical methods?,"
Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School Working Paper Series
2004-16, Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School.
- S. Balcaen & H. Ooghe, 2004. "Alternative methodologies in studies on business failure: do they produce better results than the classical statistical methods?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 04/249, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Kadri Männasoo, 2007. "Determinants of firm sustainability in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2007-04, Bank of Estonia, revised 08 Mar 2007.
- Frydman, Halina & Altman, Edward I & Kao, Duen-Li, 1985. " Introducing Recursive Partitioning for Financial Classification: The Case of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 269-91, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2007-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peeter Luikmel)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Peeter Luikmel to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.