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An Experimental Test Of Taylor-Type Rules With Inexperienced Central Bankers

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  • Jim Engle-Warnick
  • Nurlan Turdaliev

Abstract

We experimentally test whether a class of monetary policy decision rules describes decision making in a population of inexperienced central bankers. In our experiments, subjects repeatedly set the short-term interest rate for a computer economy with inflation as their target. A large majority of subjects learn to successfully control inflation. We find that Taylor-type rules fit the choice data well, and are instrumental in characterizing heterogeneity in decision making. Our experiment is the first to begin to organize data experimentally with an eye on monetary policy rules for this, one of the most widely watched and analyzed decisions in economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Jim Engle-Warnick & Nurlan Turdaliev, 2006. "An Experimental Test Of Taylor-Type Rules With Inexperienced Central Bankers," Departmental Working Papers 2005-02, McGill University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcl:mclwop:2005-02
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    1. What can Governors do?
      by chris dillow in Stumbling and Mumbling on 2012-11-27 20:22:21

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    Cited by:

    1. Jim Engle-Warnick & Sonia Laszlo, 2017. "Learning-by-doing in an ambiguous environment," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 71-94, August.
    2. Giamattei, Marcus, 2015. "Cold Turkey vs. Gradualism - Evidence on Disinflation Strategies from a Laboratory Experiment," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-67-15, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    3. Ricciuti, Roberto, 2008. "Bringing macroeconomics into the lab," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 216-237, March.
    4. Wolfgang Luhan & Johann Scharler, 2013. "Monetary Policy, Inflation Illusion and the Taylor Principle: An Experimental Study," Working Papers 2013-03, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    5. Noussair, Charles N. & Pfajfar, Damjan & Zsiros, Janos, 2015. "Pricing decisions in an experimental dynamic stochastic general equilibrium economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 188-202.
    6. Noussair, C.N. & Pfajfar, D. & Zsiros, J., 2011. "Frictions, Persistence, and Central Bank Policy in an Experimental Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Economy," Discussion Paper 2011-030, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Robert Amano & Jim Engle-Warnick & Malik Shukayev, 2011. "Price-Level Targeting and Inflation Expectations: Experimental Evidence," Staff Working Papers 11-18, Bank of Canada.
    8. Claude Montmarquette, 2008. "L'économétrie des données expérimentales : défis et opportunités," Economie & Prévision, La Documentation Française, vol. 0(1), pages 7-17.
    9. Pfajfar, D. & Zakelj, B., 2011. "Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Design : Evidence from the Laboratory (Replaces CentER DP 2009-007)," Discussion Paper 2011-091, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System

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