IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mar/magkse/202035.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Democracy and Militarization in Developing Countries: A Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Sajjad F. Dizaji

    (Tarbiat Modares University)

  • Mohammad R. Farzanegan

    (Philipps-Universitaet Marburg)

Abstract

This study examines the dynamic relationship between democracy and the military in more than 40 developing countries from 1990 to 2017. We investigate the dynamic interaction between democracy and military institutions using a panel vector autoregressive model and impulse response functions as well as variance decomposition analyses. We show that democracy plays a significant role in the substitution of nonmilitary expenditures for defense expenditures. We also investigate the response of democracy to positive shocks in military and nonmilitary spending. We find that the responses of political system and different indexes of democracy including electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian democracy to positive shocks in military expenditures are negative and significant, whereas their responses to the shocks in nonmilitary expenditures are not significant. This result suggests that the political behavior of governments in developing countries is influenced more heavily by their spending on the military sector than by their spending on the nonmilitary sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Sajjad F. Dizaji & Mohammad R. Farzanegan, 2020. "Democracy and Militarization in Developing Countries: A Panel Vector Autoregressive Analysis," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202035, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  • Handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202035
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.uni-marburg.de/en/fb02/research-groups/economics/macroeconomics/research/magks-joint-discussion-papers-in-economics/papers/2020-papers/35-2020_dizaji.pdf
    File Function: First 202035
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Kotera, Go & Okada, Keisuke, 2017. "How does democratization affect the composition of government expenditure?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 145-159.
    3. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    4. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    5. Jennifer Brauner, 2015. "Military spending and democracy," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 409-423, August.
    6. Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine K. Yücel, 1999. "Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-23.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    8. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    9. Maizels, Alfred & Nissanke, Machiko K., 1986. "The determinants of military expenditures in developing countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 14(9), pages 1125-1140, September.
    10. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Elias, Ferran, 2012. "Institutional determinants of military spending," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-290.
    11. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    12. M. Hakan Berument & Nildag Basak Ceylan & Nukhet Dogan, 2010. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 149-176.
    13. Koutsomanoli-Filippaki, Anastasia & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel, 2009. "Performance and Merton-type default risk of listed banks in the EU: A panel VAR approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2050-2061, November.
    14. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-652, Special I.
    15. Evans, Geoffrey & Rose, Pauline, 2007. "Support for Democracy in Malawi: Does Schooling Matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 904-919, May.
    16. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    17. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. �nal T�ng�r & Adem Y. Elveren, 2015. "Military Expenditures, Income Inequality, Welfare and Political Regimes: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 49-74, February.
    19. Vahe Lskavyan, 2011. "Democracy levels and the income-military expenditure relationship," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1485-1489.
    20. Dahlum, Sirianne & Knutsen, Carl Henrik, 2017. "Do Democracies Provide Better Education? Revisiting the Democracy–Human Capital Link," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 186-199.
    21. J. Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman, 2003. "The demand for military spending in developing countries: A dynamic panel analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 461-474.
    22. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2019. "Trade openness, political institutions, and military spending (evidence from lifting Iran’s sanctions)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 2013-2041, December.
    23. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    24. Töngür, Ünal & Hsu, Sara & Elveren, Adem Yavuz, 2015. "Military expenditures and political regimes: Evidence from global data, 1963–2000," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-79.
    25. Rota, Mauro, 2016. "Military spending, fiscal capacity and the democracy puzzle," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 41-51.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dizaji, S.F., 2019. "The potential impact of oil sanctions on military spending and democracy in the Middle East," ISS Working Papers - General Series 644, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    2. Dizaji, S.F. & Murshed, S.M., 2020. "The impact of external arms restrictions on democracy and conflict in developing countries," ISS Working Papers - General Series 128245, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
    3. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Military Spending and Economic Growth: The Case of Iran," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(3), pages 247-269, June.
    4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    5. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, September.
    6. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Oil revenue shocks and government spending behavior in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1055-1069.
    7. Christophe Kamps, 2005. "The Dynamic Effects of Public Capital: VAR Evidence for 22 OECD Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 12(4), pages 533-558, August.
    8. Jonathan H. Wright, 2000. "Exact confidence intervals for impulse responses in a Gaussian vector autoregression," International Finance Discussion Papers 682, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    10. Troug, Haytem & Murray, Matt, 2015. "The Effects of Asymmetric Shocks in Oil Prices on the Performance of the Libyan Economy," MPRA Paper 68705, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji, 2019. "Trade openness, political institutions, and military spending (evidence from lifting Iran’s sanctions)," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 2013-2041, December.
    12. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009200, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    13. Ryan H. Murphy & Colin O’Reilly, 2019. "Applying panel vector autoregression to institutions, human capital, and output," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1633-1652, November.
    14. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    15. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2019. "Military spending, economic growth and investment: a disaggregated analysis by income group," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 935-958, March.
    16. Galadima, Mukhtar Danladi & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2019. "Shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in Nigeria: Structural VAR with sign restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 135-144.
    17. Ireland, Peter N., 2004. "A method for taking models to the data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
    18. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    19. Francisco F. R. Ramos, 1996. "Forecasting market shares using VAR and BVAR models: A comparison of their forecasting performance," Econometrics 9601003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 641-647, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mar:magkse:202035. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bernd Hayo (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vamarde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.