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Evolutionary Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Change-point Models

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  • Arnaud Dufays

Abstract

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used for non-linear filtering purposes. Nevertheless the SMC scope encompasses wider applications such as estimating static model parameters so much that it is becoming a serious alternative to Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) methods. Not only SMC algorithms draw posterior distributions of static or dynamic parameters but additionally provide an estimate of the marginal likelihood. The tempered and time (TNT) algorithm, developed in the paper, combines (off-line) tempered SMC inference with on-line SMC inference for drawing realizations from many sequential posterior distributions without experiencing a particle degeneracy problem. Furthermore, it introduces a new MCMC rejuvenation step that is generic, automated and well-suited for multi-modal distributions. As this update relies on the wide heuristic optimization literature, numerous extensions are already available. The algorithm is notably appropriate for estimating Change-point models. As an example, we compare Change-point GARCH models through their marginal likelihoods over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnaud Dufays, 2015. "Evolutionary Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Change-point Models," Cahiers de recherche 1508, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    • Handle: RePEc:lvl:crrecr:1508
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    1. Dufays, Arnaud & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2020. "Relevant parameter changes in structural break models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 46-78.
    2. Arnaud Dufays & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2019. "Sparse Change-point HAR Models for Realized Variance," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 857-880, September.
    3. Speich, Matthias & Dormann, Carsten F. & Hartig, Florian, 2021. "Sequential Monte-Carlo algorithms for Bayesian model calibration – A review and method comparison✰," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 455(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian inference; Sequential Monte Carlo; Annealed Importance sampling; Change-point models; Differential Evolution; GARCH models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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