IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v80y2014icp99-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

RMCMC: A system for updating Bayesian models

Author

Listed:
  • Lau, F. Din-Houn
  • Gandy, Axel

Abstract

A system to update estimates from a sequence of probability distributions is presented. The aim of the system is to quickly produce estimates with a user-specified bound on the Monte Carlo error. The estimates are based upon weighted samples stored in a database. The stored samples are maintained such that the accuracy of the estimates and quality of the samples are satisfactory. This maintenance involves varying the number of samples in the database and updating their weights. New samples are generated, when required, by a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The system is demonstrated using a football league model that is used to predict the end of season table. The correctness of the estimates and their accuracy are shown in a simulation using a linear Gaussian model.

Suggested Citation

  • Lau, F. Din-Houn & Gandy, Axel, 2014. "RMCMC: A system for updating Bayesian models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 99-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:80:y:2014:i:c:p:99-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2014.06.010
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167947314001819
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.csda.2014.06.010?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pierre Del Moral & Arnaud Doucet & Ajay Jasra, 2006. "Sequential Monte Carlo samplers," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 68(3), pages 411-436, June.
    2. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    3. Nicolas Chopin, 2002. "A sequential particle filter method for static models," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(3), pages 539-552, August.
    4. N. Chopin & P. E. Jacob & O. Papaspiliopoulos, 2013. "SMC-super-2: an efficient algorithm for sequential analysis of state space models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 75(3), pages 397-426, June.
    5. Genshiro Kitagawa, 2014. "Computational aspects of sequential Monte Carlo filter and smoother," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(3), pages 443-471, June.
    6. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7305 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Arnaud Dufays, 2016. "Evolutionary Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers for Change-Point Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-33, March.
    2. Axel Finke & Adam Johansen & Dario Spanò, 2014. "Static-parameter estimation in piecewise deterministic processes using particle Gibbs samplers," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(3), pages 577-609, June.
    3. Arnaud Dufays, 2014. "On the conjugacy of off-line and on-line Sequential Monte Carlo Samplers," Working Paper Research 263, National Bank of Belgium.
    4. Axel Finke & Ruth King & Alexandros Beskos & Petros Dellaportas, 2019. "Efficient Sequential Monte Carlo Algorithms for Integrated Population Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 24(2), pages 204-224, June.
    5. Ajay Jasra & Kody Law & Carina Suciu, 2020. "Advanced Multilevel Monte Carlo Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 88(3), pages 548-579, December.
    6. Patrick Aschermayr & Konstantinos Kalogeropoulos, 2023. "Sequential Bayesian Learning for Hidden Semi-Markov Models," Papers 2301.10494, arXiv.org.
    7. Brignone, Riccardo & Gonzato, Luca & Lütkebohmert, Eva, 2023. "Efficient Quasi-Bayesian Estimation of Affine Option Pricing Models Using Risk-Neutral Cumulants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    8. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2021. "Particle Rolling MCMC with Double-Block Sampling ," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1175, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    9. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    10. Nicolas Chopin & Mathieu Gerber, 2017. "Sequential quasi-Monte Carlo: Introduction for Non-Experts, Dimension Reduction, Application to Partly Observed Diffusion Processes," Working Papers 2017-35, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    11. Herbst, Edward & Schorfheide, Frank, 2019. "Tempered particle filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 26-44.
    12. Ramis Khabibullin & Sergei Seleznev, 2022. "Fast Estimation of Bayesian State Space Models Using Amortized Simulation-Based Inference," Papers 2210.07154, arXiv.org.
    13. Andras Fulop & Jeremy Heng & Junye Li, 2022. "Efficient Likelihood-based Estimation via Annealing for Dynamic Structural Macrofinance Models," Papers 2201.01094, arXiv.org.
    14. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2019. "Particle rolling MCMC," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1110, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    15. Gareth W. Peters & Rodrigo S. Targino & Mario V. Wüthrich, 2017. "Bayesian Modelling, Monte Carlo Sampling and Capital Allocation of Insurance Risks," Risks, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-51, September.
    16. Duan, Jin-Chuan & Fulop, Andras & Hsieh, Yu-Wei, 2020. "Data-cloning SMC2: A global optimizer for maximum likelihood estimation of latent variable models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Li, Dan & Clements, Adam & Drovandi, Christopher, 2021. "Efficient Bayesian estimation for GARCH-type models via Sequential Monte Carlo," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 22-46.
    18. Hai‐Dang Dau & Nicolas Chopin, 2022. "Waste‐free sequential Monte Carlo," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(1), pages 114-148, February.
    19. Naoki Awaya & Yasuhiro Omori, 2017. "Particle rolling MCMC with Double Block Sampling: Conditional SMC Update Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1066, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    20. Huang, Jing-Zhi & Ni, Jun & Xu, Li, 2022. "Leverage effect in cryptocurrency markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:80:y:2014:i:c:p:99-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.