Success as Trap? Crisis Response And Challenges To Economic Upgrading in Export-Oriented Southeast Asia
This paper explores the capacities for sustained growth in the export-oriented countries of Southeast Asia, with a focus on Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. The paper is especially concerned with the prospects for "upgrading" and moving beyond the "middle-income trap" in Malaysia and Thailand. But the core argument for all three countries is similar: Each has responded relatively well to economic crises with impressive reforms, especially in areas of property rights, macroeconomic policies, and, to varying degrees, financial supervision. With some exceptions, however, reforms have not extended to improving local (indigenous) competitiveness and technological capacities. These limits reflect both successful adjustment in areas noted earlier and the availability of resources, including commodity export revenues, external aid, and migrant / informal labor. The danger is that such "safety valves" will serve to reinforce existing institutional and political arrangements, thus undermining initiatives to improve local competitiveness and linkages so key to upgrading. Of particular interest is the fact that, unlike Western European countries where external exposure and vulnerability have led to various forms of labor incorporation, and unlike in the East Asian NICs, where such vulnerability has led at least to a commitment to shared prosperity (and in Singapore to a peak union's participation in labor market and productivity decisions), labor has remained largely disorganized and excluded from bargaining over key issues in export-oriented Southeast Asia. This argument in turn reflects the contention that crises vary in nature and intensity, that different crises have different impacts on the willingness and capacity of political elites to promote new coalitions and to foster new forms of coordination (i.e. institutions), and that such institutions are especially important for movement into more innovation-based activities and higher income status.
|Date of creation:||30 Mar 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 6th-13th floors, Shinjuku Maynds Tower, 2-1-1 Yoyogi, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo 151-8558|
Web page: http://jica-ri.jica.go.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Imbs, Jean & Wacziarg, Romain, 2000.
"Stages of Diversification,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2642, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Manuel Agosin, 2007.
"Export Diversification And Growth In Emerging Economies,"
wp233, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
- Agosin, Manuel R., 2008. "Export diversification and growth in emerging economies," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), pages -, August.
- Hill, Hal, 2000. "Export Success Against the Odds: A Vietnamese Case Study," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 283-300, February.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2004.
"Extensive and Intensive Growth in a Neoclassical Framework,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4266, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Irmen, Andreas, 2005. "Extensive and intensive growth in a neoclassical framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1427-1448, August.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-291, March.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Levine's Working Paper Archive 7656, David K. Levine.
- Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Growing with Global Production Sharing: The Tale of Penang Export Hub," Departmental Working Papers 2011-13, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Dirk Willem Te Velde & Theodora Xenogiani, 2007. "Foreign Direct Investment and International Skill Inequality," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 83-104.
- Rodrik, Dani, 2004.
"Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century,"
Working Paper Series
rwp04-047, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Cavallo, Alberto F. & Cavallo, Eduardo A., 2010.
"Are crises good for long-term growth? The role of political institutions,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 838-857, September.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Alberto Cavallo, 2008. "Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth? The Role of Political Institutions," Research Department Publications 4589, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Eduardo A. Cavallo & Alberto F. Cavallo, 2008. "Are Crises Good for Long-Term Growth?: The Role of Political Institutions," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6517, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Robert H. Bates & Steven A. Block & Ghada Fayad & Anke Hoeffler, 2013. "The New Institutionalism and Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 22(4), pages 499-522, August.
- Shahid Yusuf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2009. "Tiger Economies Under Threat : A Comparative Analysis of Malaysia's Industrial Prospects and Policy Options," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2680.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Iversen, Torben, 1999. "Institutions and Economic Performance: Evidence from the Labour Market," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 121-138, Winter.
- Shahid Yusuf & M. Anjum Altaf & Kaoru Nabeshima, 2004. "Global Production Networking and Technological Change in East Asia," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14918.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jic:wpaper:45. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Japan International Cooperation Agency Library)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.