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Beliefs, Learning, and Personality in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma

Author

Listed:
  • Gill, David

    (Purdue University)

  • Rosokha, Yaroslav

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

We aim to understand the role and evolution of beliefs in the indefinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma (IRPD). To do so, we elicit beliefs about the supergame strategies chosen by others. We find that heterogeneity in beliefs and changes in beliefs with experience are central to understanding behavior and learning in the IRPD. Beliefs strongly predict cooperation, initial beliefs match behavior quite well, most subjects choose strategies that perform well given their beliefs, and beliefs respond to experience while becoming more accurate over time. Finally, we uncover a novel mechanism whereby trusting subjects learn to cooperate through their interaction with experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Gill, David & Rosokha, Yaroslav, 2022. "Beliefs, Learning, and Personality in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," IZA Discussion Papers 15492, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp15492
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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Alecia & Sesmero, Juan, 2022. "Cooperation in Social Dilemmas with Correlated Noisy Payoffs: Theory and Experimental Evidence," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 322804, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Kettlewell, Nathan & Tymula, Agnieszka, 2024. "Heritability across different domains of trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 549-563.
    3. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119r, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    4. Gill, David & Knepper, Zachary & Prowse, Victoria & Zhou, Junya, 2025. "How cognitive skills affect strategic behavior: Cognitive ability, fluid intelligence and judgment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 82-95.
    5. Julian Romero & Yaroslav Rosokha, 2023. "Mixed Strategies in the Indefinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 91(6), pages 2295-2331, November.
    6. Maximilian Andres, 2023. "Communication in the Infinitely Repeated Prisoner's Dilemma: Theory and Experiments," Papers 2304.12297, arXiv.org.
    7. Xu, Xue & Zheng, Kun, 2024. "Private monitoring revisited: When does a shared history matter?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Ridinger, Garret & McBride, Michael, 2025. "Theory-of-mind ability and cooperation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    9. Heller, Yuval & Tubul, Itay, 2023. "Strategies in the repeated prisoner’s dilemma: A cluster analysis," MPRA Paper 117444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Masaki Aoyagi & Guillaume Frechette & Sevgi Yuksel, 2021. "Beliefs in Repeated Games," ISER Discussion Paper 1119, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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