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Employment Structures in China from 1990 to 2015: Demographic and Technological Change

Author

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  • Ge, Peng

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Sun, Wenkai

    (Renmin University of China)

  • Zhao, Zhong

    (Renmin University of China)

Abstract

Using national representative samples from population census and mini-census of China, this paper documents important employment dynamics in China from 1990 to 2015. The share of routine manual jobs decreased significant from 57% to 32%; both the share of routine cognitive jobs and the share of not-working increased significantly, from 8% to 19%, and from 16% to 31%, respectively; however, the share of non-routine jobs had no significant change. Our decomposition exercises suggest that the composition effect resulting from change in the composition of population demographics, the propensity effect from change in the probability for people with given demographic characteristics into different employment categories and the interaction effect contribute to 68%, 66% and -34% to the fall in routine manual jobs, respectively. Meanwhile, these effects for the rise in routine cognitive jobs and for the increase in not-working are 16%, 74%, 11%, and 7%, 93%, 0.3%, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Ge, Peng & Sun, Wenkai & Zhao, Zhong, 2021. "Employment Structures in China from 1990 to 2015: Demographic and Technological Change," IZA Discussion Papers 14141, IZA Network @ LISER.
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp14141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Chunbing Xing, 2021. "The changing nature of work and earnings inequality in China," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-105, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Xie, Da & Zhang, Min & Bing, Pijing, 2025. "Manual task intensity and male-female wage gap: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Guan, Chenghua & Xu, Wanting & Yang, Peijin & Xiao, Yao & Rasul, Byann, 2025. "How does large-scale internal migration affect innovation? Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    5. Ling, Wanying & Wang, Senhu & Li, Shuanglong, 2024. "Diversity patterns in non-standard employment and their relationship with self-rated health in urban China from 2010 to 2021," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 348(C).
    6. Fleisher, Belton M. & McGuire, William H. & Su, Yaqin & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2018. "Innovation, Wages, and Polarization in China," IZA Discussion Papers 11569, IZA Network @ LISER.
    7. Hanushek, Eric A. & Wang, Yuan & Zhang, Lei, 2025. "Understanding trends in Chinese skill premiums, 2007–2018," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 584-608.
    8. Xu, Tao & Zhu, Weiwei, 2021. "Eudemonia and Freedom: A Bibliometric Research on Frontiers and Evolution of Labour and Employment in China," MPRA Paper 112908, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2022.
    9. Antonio Martins-Neto & Nanditha Mathew & Pierre Mohnen & Tania Treibich, 2024. "Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 39(2), pages 259-288.
    10. Fang, Guanfu & Miao, Liya, 2024. "Expanding boundaries: The Impact of kindergarten availability on women's employment in China," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    11. Hu, Wanqi & Huang, Wangen & Wu, Jianxin & Zhang, Chaokai, 2024. "Place-based policies and local human capital accumulation: Evidence from China's special economic zone program," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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