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Fundamentals Of The Us And The Uk Interest Rates Under The Rational Expectation Scheme

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Mauleón

    (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

  • Mª Mar Sánchez

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

This paper presents a macro-econometric model for medium- and long-term nominal interest rates and the empirical results obtained with US and UK data. The explanatory equation for nominal interest rates is derived from the equilibrium condition of the savings market and takes real, financial and foreign aspects into account. Expected values of the inflation rate appear as regressors and, assuming rational expectations, two alternative models are obtained and estimated by the generalized method of moments. The empirical results for the US support: a) the strong influence of the inflation rate on the nominal interest rate (although the Fisher hypothesis is not completely fulfilled), b) the importance of the growth rate of the real GDP in the interest-rate determination, and c) the fulfilment of the Ricardian hypothesis. The UK nominal interest rate follows the US nominal interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Mauleón & Mª Mar Sánchez, 2000. "Fundamentals Of The Us And The Uk Interest Rates Under The Rational Expectation Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2000-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2000-20
    as

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    File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2000-20.pdf
    File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2000
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
    4. Knot, Klaas, 1995. "On the Determination of Real Interest Rates in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 479-500.
    5. Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-152, April.
    6. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-459, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mª Mar Sánchez, 2002. "Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-05, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    rational expectations; gmm estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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