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Fundamentals Of The Us And The Uk Interest Rates Under The Rational Expectation Scheme

  • Ignacio Mauleón

    (Universidad Rey Juan Carlos)

  • Mª Mar Sánchez

    (Universidad de Alicante)

This paper presents a macro-econometric model for medium- and long-term nominal interest rates and the empirical results obtained with US and UK data. The explanatory equation for nominal interest rates is derived from the equilibrium condition of the savings market and takes real, financial and foreign aspects into account. Expected values of the inflation rate appear as regressors and, assuming rational expectations, two alternative models are obtained and estimated by the generalized method of moments. The empirical results for the US support: a) the strong influence of the inflation rate on the nominal interest rate (although the Fisher hypothesis is not completely fulfilled), b) the importance of the growth rate of the real GDP in the interest-rate determination, and c) the fulfilment of the Ricardian hypothesis. The UK nominal interest rate follows the US nominal interest rate.

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File URL: http://www.ivie.es/downloads/docs/wpasad/wpasad-2000-20.pdf
File Function: Fisrt version / Primera version, 2000
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Paper provided by Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie) in its series Working Papers. Serie AD with number 2000-20.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by Ivie
Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2000-20
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  1. Pantula, Sastry G & Gonzalez-Farias, Graciela & Fuller, Wayne A, 1994. "A Comparison of Unit-Root Test Criteria," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 449-59, October.
  2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Knot, Klaas, 1995. "On the Determination of Real Interest Rates in Europe," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 479-500.
  4. Ghysels, Eric, 1990. "Unit-Root Tests and the Statistical Pitfalls of Seasonal Adjustment: The Case of U.S. Postwar Real Gross National Product," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 145-52, April.
  5. Jyh-Lin Wu & Show-Lin Chen, 1998. "A Re-examination of Real Interest Rate Parity," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 31(4), pages 837-851, November.
  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
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