Interest-Rate Models For Us And Uk With Mixed Inflationary Expectations. A Comparison With The Rational And The Adaptive Scheme
This paper presents a macro-econometric model for medium- and long-term nominal interest rates, assuming heterogeneous economic agents in the market that use different and limited sets of information. It also shows the empirical results obtained from US and UK data, comparing the performance of the model under mixed expectations with, respectively, the performance of the model under rational expectations and under a kind of adaptative expectation. The econometric problems arising in the mixed- and rational-expectation models are tackled by the generalized method of moments. The mixed-expectation model picks up the dynamics of market expectations better than both the rational-expectation model and the adaptative-expectation model, so that it provides the more reasonable model of interest-rate determination.
|Date of creation:||Jun 2002|
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