IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iso/educat/0209.html

"This time it's different" Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel Goller
  • Christian Gschwendt
  • Stefan C. Wolter

Abstract

In this paper, we show the causal influence of the launch of generative AI in the form of ChatGPT on the search behavior of young people for apprenticeship vacancies. There is a strong and long-lasting decline in the intensity of searches for vacancies, which suggests great uncertainty among the affected cohort. Analyses based on the classification of occupations according to tasks, type of cognitive requirements, and the expected risk of automation to date show significant differences in the extent to which specific occupations are affected. Occupations with a high proportion of cognitive tasks, with high demands on language skills, and those whose automation risk had previously been assessed by experts as lower are significantly more affected by the decline. However, no differences can be found with regard to the proportion of routine vs. non-routine tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Goller & Christian Gschwendt & Stefan C. Wolter, 2023. ""This time it's different" Generative Artificial Intelligence and Occupational Choice," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0209, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    • Handle: RePEc:iso:educat:0209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.business.uzh.ch/RePEc/iso/leadinghouse/0209_lhwpaper.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1279-1333.
    2. Erik Brynjolfsson & Danielle Li & Lindsey Raymond, 2025. "Generative AI at Work," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 140(2), pages 889-942.
    3. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    4. Daniel Goller & Stefan C. Wolter, 2021. "“Too shocked to search” The COVID-19 shutdowns’ impact on the search for apprenticeships," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 157(1), pages 1-15, December.
    5. Balsmeier, Benjamin & Woerter, Martin, 2019. "Is this time different? How digitalization influences job creation and destruction," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    6. Korinek, Anton, 2024. "Economic Policy Challenges for the Age of AI," CEPR Discussion Papers 19539, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Frey, Carl Benedikt & Osborne, Michael A., 2017. "The future of employment: How susceptible are jobs to computerisation?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 254-280.
    8. Eggenberger, Christian & Janssen, Simon & Backes-Gellner, Uschi, 2022. "The value of specific skills under shock: High risks and high returns," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Goller, Daniel & Wolter, Stefan C., 2025. "Reaching for gold! The impact of a positive reputation shock on career choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    10. Andrew Green, 2024. "Artificial intelligence and the changing demand for skills in the labour market," OECD Artificial Intelligence Papers 14, OECD Publishing.
    11. David H. Autor & Frank Levy & Richard J. Murnane, 2003. "The skill content of recent technological change: an empirical exploration," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue nov.
    12. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 891-936.
    13. Eli Bekman & John Bound & Stephen Machin, 1998. "Implications of Skill-Biased Technological Change: International Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(4), pages 1245-1279.
    14. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning, 2007. "Lousy and Lovely Jobs: The Rising Polarization of Work in Britain," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 118-133, February.
    15. Maarten Goos & Alan Manning & Anna Salomons, 2009. "Job Polarization in Europe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 58-63, May.
    16. Lemieux, Thomas & Milligan, Kevin, 2008. "Incentive effects of social assistance: A regression discontinuity approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 807-828, February.
    17. Cattaneo, Maria A. & Gschwendt, Christian & Wolter, Stefan C., 2025. "How scary is the risk of automation? Evidence from a large-scale survey experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    18. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    19. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    20. Daron Acemoglu & David Autor & Jonathon Hazell & Pascual Restrepo, 2022. "Artificial Intelligence and Jobs: Evidence from Online Vacancies," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 293-340.
    21. Filippo Pusterla & Ursula Renold, 2022. "Does ICT affect the demand for vocationally educated workers?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-22, December.
    22. Ed Felten & Manav Raj & Robert Seamans, 2023. "How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries?," Papers 2303.01157, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2023.
    23. Emil Mihaylov & Kea Tijdens, 2019. "Measuring the Routine and Non-Routine Task Content of 427 Four-Digit ISCO-08 Occupations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-035/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    24. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2016. "Do Fiscal Rules Matter?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(3), pages 1-30, July.
    25. Xiang Hui & Oren Reshef & Luofeng Zhou, 2023. "The Short-Term Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence on Employment: Evidence from an Online Labor Market," CESifo Working Paper Series 10601, CESifo.
    26. Wojciech Hardy & Roma Keister & Piotr Lewandowski, 2018. "Educational upgrading, structural change and the task composition of jobs in Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 26(2), pages 201-231, April.
    27. Lawrence F. Katz & Kevin M. Murphy, 1992. "Changes in Relative Wages, 1963–1987: Supply and Demand Factors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 35-78.
    28. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    29. Christian Gschwendt, 2022. "Routine job dynamics in the Swiss labor market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Goller, Daniel & Wolter, Stefan C., 2025. "Reaching for gold! The impact of a positive reputation shock on career choice," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Kauhanen, Antti & Rouvinen, Petri, 2026. "AI Has Not Impacted the Youth Labor Market in Finland," ETLA Working Papers 135, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Gschwendt, 2022. "Routine job dynamics in the Swiss labor market," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-21, December.
    2. Jasmine Mondolo, 2022. "The composite link between technological change and employment: A survey of the literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1027-1068, September.
    3. Gravina, Antonio Francesco & Foster-McGregor, Neil, 2020. "Automation, globalisation and relative wages: An empirical analysis of winners and losers," MERIT Working Papers 2020-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Stefania Albanesi & António Dias da Silva & Juan F Jimeno & Ana Lamo & Alena Wabitsch, 2025. "New technologies and jobs in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 40(121), pages 71-139.
    5. Pouliakas, Konstantinos, 2018. "Determinants of Automation Risk in the EU Labour Market: A Skills-Needs Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 11829, IZA Network @ LISER.
    6. Mauro Caselli & Andrea Fracasso & Sergio Scicchitano & Silvio Traverso & Enrico Tundis, 2021. "Stop worrying and love the robot: An activity-based approach to assess the impact of robotization on employment dynamics," DEM Working Papers 2021/06, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Alvarelhão, Ana & Resende, Joana & Carneiro, Anabela, 2024. "Employment and wage dynamics in the electricity sector: Evidence from Portugal 2002–2020," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Cattaneo, Maria A. & Gschwendt, Christian & Wolter, Stefan C., 2025. "How scary is the risk of automation? Evidence from a large-scale survey experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    9. Caselli, Mauro & Fracasso, Andrea & Scicchitano, Sergio & Traverso, Silvio & Tundis, Enrico, 2025. "What workers and robots do: An activity-based analysis of the impact of robotization on changes in local employment," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1).
    10. Thomsen, Stephan L, 2018. "Die Rolle der Computerisierung und Digitalisierung für Beschäftigung und Einkommen," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-645, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Du Yuhong & Wei Xiahai, 2020. "Task content routinisation, technological change and labour turnover: Evidence from China," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 31(3), pages 324-346, September.
    12. Cirillo, Valeria & Evangelista, Rinaldo & Guarascio, Dario & Sostero, Matteo, 2021. "Digitalization, routineness and employment: An exploration on Italian task-based data," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    13. Ylenia Curci & Nathalie Greenan & Silvia Napolitano, 2024. "Innovating for the good or for the bad. An EU-wide analysis of the impact of technological transformation on job polarisation and unemployment," TEPP Working Paper 2024-02, TEPP.
    14. Florencia Jaccoud, 2025. "Robots & AI exposure and wage inequality: a within occupation approach," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 15(4), pages 1035-1090, December.
    15. Christian Gschwendt & Claudio Schilter, 2026. "Automation in the Wake of GenAI: Implications for Firm Training," Economics of Education Working Paper Series 0252, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    16. Sebastian, Raquel & Salas-Rojo, Pedro & C. Palomino, Juan & G. Rodríguez, Juan, 2026. "New technologies and the rise of wage inequality," INET Oxford Working Papers 2026-04, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    17. Guarascio, Dario & Reljic, Jelena & Stöllinger, Roman, 2025. "Diverging paths: AI exposure and employment across European regions," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 11-24.
    18. Nicola Cassandro & Marco Centra & Dario Guarascio & Piero Esposito, 2021. "What drives employment–unemployment transitions? Evidence from Italian task-based data," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(3), pages 1109-1147, October.
    19. Sari Kerr & Terhi Maczulskij & Mika Maliranta, 2020. "Within and between firm trends in job polarization: the roles of globalization and technology [The skill complementarity of broadband internet]," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 1003-1039.
    20. Filippo Pusterla & Ursula Renold, 2022. "Does ICT affect the demand for vocationally educated workers?," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-22, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iso:educat:0209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sara Brunner (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/isuzhch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.