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Macroeconomic Implications of Early Retirement in the Public Sector: The Case of Brazil

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  • Gerhard Glomm

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Juergen Jung

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

  • Chung Tran

    (Indiana University Bloomington)

Abstract

In Brazil generous public sector pensions have induced civil servants to retire on average at age 55. In this paper we use an OLG model to assess the effects of such policy induced early retirement on capital accumulation and long-run income levels. We calibrate the model to data from Brazil and then conduct policy experiments changing the generosity of (early) public sector pensions. We find that the current generosity of public sector pensions which induces civil servants to retire 10 years prematurely (at age 55 rather than at age 65) is often associated with decreases in steady state output (GDP) of over 2 percent and welfare losses in the private sector of more than 1 percent of consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Chung Tran, 2006. "Macroeconomic Implications of Early Retirement in the Public Sector: The Case of Brazil," CAEPR Working Papers 2006-008, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    • Handle: RePEc:inu:caeprp:2006008
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    Cited by:

    1. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung, 2012. "The extension of social security coverage in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 439-458.
    2. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2015. "A Macroeconomic Analysis Of Energy Subsidies In A Small Open Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1783-1806, October.
    3. Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2018. "Social security reform, retirement and occupational behavior," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 803, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    4. Glomm Gerhard & Jung Juergen & Lee Changmin & Tran Chung, 2010. "Public Sector Pension Policies and Capital Accumulation in an Emerging Economy: The Case of Brazil," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-40, June.
    5. Bilal Bagis, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Changes in Social Security Rules," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(1), pages 01-20, January.
    6. Lee, Hyun & Zhao, Kai & Zou, Fei, 2022. "Does the early retirement policy really benefit women?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 196(C), pages 330-345.
    7. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Gender equality and economic growth in Brazil: A long-run analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 155-172.
    8. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2024. "Social security reforms, retirement and sectoral decisions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 842, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    9. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung, 2010. "A Macroeconomic Analysis of the Fiscal System in Egypt," Working Papers 2010-17, Towson University, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
    10. Julian Diaz Saavedra, 2014. "Early Retirement, Social Security, and Output Gap," ThE Papers 14/01, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    11. Bettoni, Luis G. & Santos, Marcelo R., 2022. "Public sector employment and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    12. Anna Carolina Saba dos Reis & Eduardo Zilberman, 2013. "On the Optimal Size of Public Employment," Textos para discussão 612, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    13. Delalibera, Bruno Ricardo & Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti & Parente, Rafael Machado, 2023. "Social security reforms, retirement and sectoral decisions," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 838, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    14. George Economides & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stylianos Sakkas, 2021. "Redistributive policies in general equilibrium," JRC Working Papers on Territorial Modelling and Analysis 2021-08, Joint Research Centre.
    15. George Economides & Hyun Park & Apostolis Philippopoulos & Stelios Sakkas, 2015. "On the Composition of Public Spending and Taxes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5510, CESifo.
    16. Ibrahim Al Hawarin, 2012. "The Patterns of Early Retirement among Jordanian Men," Working Papers 677, Economic Research Forum, revised 2012.
    17. Gomes, Pedro Maia & Wellschmied, Felix, 2020. "Public-Sector Compensation over the Life Cycle," IZA Discussion Papers 13042, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Gerhard Glomm & Juergen Jung & Changmin Lee & Chung Tran, 2009. "Public Sector Pension Policies and Capital Accumulation in Emerging Economies," Discussion Papers 2009-10, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    19. Samantha Haussmann & André Braz Golgher, 2016. "Shrinking gender wage gaps in the Brazilian labor market: an application of the APC approach [Shrinking gender wage gaps in the Brazilian labor market: an application of the APC approach]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 26(2), pages 429-464, May-Augus.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Early Retirement; Pension Reform; Capital Accumulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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