Konjunktur und Rentenversicherung - gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten und mögliche Veränderungen durch diskretionäre Maßnahmen
The study provides an empirical analysis of the effects of cyclical fluctuations - including those of the current economic crisis - on revenues and expenditures of the German public pay-as-you-go pension system on the one hand. On the other hand the pension reforms of the most recent decade are scrutinised in terms of their repercussions on the business cycle. Special emphasis is placed on the gradual reduction of the public pension level and the subsidisation of private fully funded so-called "Riester" pension schemes. For the analysis the authors develop an econometric model of the public pension system and integrate it into the IMK's existing macro model of the German economy. The analysis shows several weaknesses of the current public pension formula. Firstly, it should not include the effects of short-time working on the aggregate of gross wages and salaries per employee. Otherwise the current extensive use of short-time working to avoid unemployment will first reduce pensions and then raise them again. Secondly, the time lag between cyclical changes and their repercussions on the expenditures of the pension system could be further increased to improve the stabilising effects of the pension system on the business cycle. And thirdly, the pension system's provisions for revenue fluctuations should be raised in order to avoid increasing contributions in a severe and protracted crisis. A separate section of the study deals with the cyclical effects of private households' increased savings for old age. To a significant extent the increase of the savings ratio since the beginning of this decade is due to the "Riester" reforms and has retarded growth and employment.
|Date of creation:||2009|
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- Robert Holzmann, 1997. "Fiscal Alternatives of Moving from Unfunded to Funded Pensions," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 126, OECD Publishing.
- Volker Meinhardt, 1997. "Vereinigungsfolgen belasten Sozialversicherung," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 64(40), pages 725-729.
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- Andrew A. Samwick, 2000. "Is Pension Reform Conducive to Higher Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 264-272, May.
- Alain de Serres & Florian Pelgrin, 2002.
"The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can be Explained by Non-Wealth Determinants?,"
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- Florian Pelgrin & Alain de Serres, 2003. "The Decline in Private Saving Rates in the 1990s in OECD Countries: How Much Can Be Explained by Non-wealth Determinants?," OECD Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2003(1), pages 117-153.
- Werner Dirschmid & Ernst Glatzer, 2004. "Determinants of the Household Saving Rate in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 25-38.
- Volker Meinhardt & Rudolf Zwiener, 2005. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen einer Steuerfinanzierung versicherungsfremder Leistungen in der Sozialversicherung: Endbericht ; Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des DGB Bundesvorstandes, der Hans-Böckler," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 7, number pbk7, May.
- Nikolaus Bartzsch, 2006. "Vorsichtssparen und Einkommensunsicherheit privater Haushalte in Deutschland: eine ökonometrische Untersuchung auf Basis von SOEP-Daten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 109-120.
- Tim Callen & Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving; Evidence From OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/181, .
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