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Vorsichtssparen und Einkommensunsicherheit privater Haushalte in Deutschland: eine ökonometrische Untersuchung auf Basis von SOEP-Daten

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  • Nikolaus Bartzsch

Abstract

The saving ratio of households in Germany has increased in the past few years when the income trend was weak. This could be due to precautionary saving. In this paper the importance of precautionary saving against income uncertainty is analysed empirically with microdata of the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP). Wealth in 2002 is regressed on alternative measures of income uncertainty in a cross-section of households. In addition to usual controls risk aversion is taken into account. When using net financial wealth precautionary saving is statistically significant and economically quite important. The share of precautionary net financial wealth in total aggregated net financial wealth is on average about 20%. Compared with net financial wealth housing wealth is not used as a buffer stock against income uncertainty, confirming the hypothesis that this kind of asset is rather illiquid. Bei schwacher Einkommensentwicklung ist die Sparquote der privaten Haushalte in Deutschland in den letzten Jahren gestiegen. Eine mögliche Erklärung ist das Vorsichtssparen, das in diesem Aufsatz im Hinblick auf die Einkommensunsicherheit untersucht wird. Dazu wird in einer Querschnittsanalyse mit Einzeldaten aus dem SOEP das Vermögen der privaten Haushalte aus dem Jahr 2002 auf alternative Maße der Einkommensunsicherheit regressiert. Neben den üblichen Kontrollvariablen wird hierbei auch die Risikoaversion berücksichtigt. Bei der Verwendung des Nettogeldvermögens ist das Vorsichtssparen statistisch signifikant und ökonomisch durchaus von Bedeutung. Der Anteil des Vorsichtsvermögens am gesamten (über die Haushalte aggregierten) Nettogeldvermögen beträgt im Durchschnitt gut 20%. Das Immobilienvermögen dient wegen seiner Illiquidität dagegen nicht als Puffer gegen negative Einkommensschocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaus Bartzsch, 2006. "Vorsichtssparen und Einkommensunsicherheit privater Haushalte in Deutschland: eine ökonometrische Untersuchung auf Basis von SOEP-Daten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(4), pages 109-120.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:75-4-7
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.75.4.109
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    1. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    2. Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde, 2012. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Risk and Trust Attitudes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 645-677.
    3. Bartzsch Nikolaus, 2008. "Precautionary Saving and Income Uncertainty in Germany – New Evidence from Microdata," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 228(1), pages 5-24, February.
    4. Christopher D. Carroll & Andrew A. Samwick, 1998. "How Important Is Precautionary Saving?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(3), pages 410-419, August.
    5. Lothar Essig, 2005. "Precautionary saving and old-age provisions: Do subjective saving motive measures work?," MEA discussion paper series 05084, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
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    1. Volker Meinhardt & Katja Rietzler & Rudolf Zwiener, 2009. "Konjunktur und Rentenversicherung - gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten und mögliche Veränderungen durch diskretionäre Maßnahmen," IMK Studies 03-2009, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Johannes Geyer, 2011. "The Effect of Health and Employment Risks on Precautionary Savings," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 408, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).

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