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Determinants of private consumption

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  • A. Bayar
  • K. Mc Morrow

Abstract

This paper looks at the evolution of consumption theory over time and critically examines the widely accepted permanent income / life cycle hypotheses concerning consumer behaviour in terms of the empirical evidence. Attention is also devoted to the role of time horizon, time preference and capital market imperfections in determining the consumption / savings split of individual consumers. The paper points out the forecasting inadequacies of an essentially Keynesian framework due to its insufficient attention to expectations and forward looking behaviour. The likely key influences on consumption trends in the Community over the medium to long run are examined including the reaction of consumption to both ongoing budgetary consolidation and financial liberalisation, the impact of taxation and social welfare reforms and finally the effect of demographic changes.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Bayar & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "Determinants of private consumption," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 135, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Jappelli, Tullio & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2000. "Using subjective income expectations to test for excess sensitivity of consumption to predicted income growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 337-358, February.
    4. Adrian Blundell-Wignall & Frank Browne & Stefano Cavaglia, 1991. "Financial Liberalisation and Consumption Behaviour," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 81, OECD Publishing.
    5. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
    6. David A. Wise & Steven F. Venti, 1993. "The Wealth of Cohorts: Retirement Saving and the Changing Assets of Older Americans," NBER Working Papers 4600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 1997. "QUEST II. A Multi-Country Business Cycle and Growth Model," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 123, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    8. Christopher D. Carroll, 1997. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 1-55.
    9. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:fth:harver:1435 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Richard Kohl & Paul O'Brien, 1998. "The Macroeconomics of Ageing, Pensions and Savings: A Survey," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 200, OECD Publishing.
    12. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    13. Tamim Bayoumi, 1997. "Explaining Consumption: A Simple Test of Alternative Hypotheses," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 462-484, December.
    14. John Y. Campbell, 1996. "Consumption and the Stock Market: Interpreting International Experience," NBER Working Papers 5610, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Tim Callen & Christian Thimann, 1997. "Empirical Determinants of Household Saving; Evidence From OECD Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/181, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Berg, Lennart, 1994. "Household Savings and Debts: The Experience of the Nordic Countries," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 42-53, Summer.
    17. Scott, Andrew, 1996. "Consumption, 'Credit Crunches' and Financial Deregulation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1389, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Masson, Paul R & Bayoumi, Tamim & Samiei, Hossein, 1998. "International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 483-501, September.
    19. Carruth, Alan & Henley, Andrew, 1990. "Can Existing Consumption Functions Forecast Consumer Spending in the Late 1980's?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 211-222, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. W. Jos Jansen & Niek J. Nahuis, 2004. "Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 89-98.
    2. Bruno Eugène & Philippe Jeanfils & Benoît Robert, 2003. "La consommation privée en Belgique," Working Paper Document 39, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. N.J. Nahuis, 2000. "Are Survey Indicators Useful for Monitoring Consumption Growth: Evidence from European Countries," MEB Series (discontinued) 2000-8, Netherlands Central Bank, Monetary and Economic Policy Department.
    4. Jürgen Janger & Claudia Kwapil & Wolfgang Pointner, 2005. "The Determinants of Consumption Growth in Austria – Results of a Representative Survey," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 48-65.
    5. Katja Rietzler, 2005. "Modelling European Business Cycles (EBC Model): A Macroeconometric Model of Spain ; February 2005," Data Documentation 4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.

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    Keywords

    consumption; consumers;

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