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A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Zoltan Jakab
  • Pavel Lukyantsau
  • Mr. Shengzu Wang

Abstract

The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Zoltan Jakab & Pavel Lukyantsau & Mr. Shengzu Wang, 2015. "A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies," IMF Working Papers 2015/050, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/050
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    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=42760
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ioan Carabenciov & Charles Freedman & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Ondrej Kamenik & Mr. Petar Manchev, 2013. "GPM6: The Global Projection Model with 6 Regions," IMF Working Papers 2013/087, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Douglas Laxton & Guy Meredith & David Rose, 1995. "Asymmetric Effects of Economic Activity on Inflation: Evidence and Policy Implications," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 344-374, June.
    3. Jeannine Bailliu & Patrick Blagrave, 2010. "The Transmission of Shocks to the Chinese Economy in a Global Context: A Model-Based Approach," Staff Working Papers 10-17, Bank of Canada.
    4. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Guy Debelle & Douglas Laxton, 1997. "Is the Phillips Curve Really a Curve? Some Evidence for Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 249-282, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7r7b5deua18sgqefn2auv6hpsl is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alyona Nelyubina, 2021. "Forecasting Regional Indicators Based on the Quarterly Projection Model," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 50-75, June.

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