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The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

Author

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  • Ayres, JoaÞo
  • García, Marcio
  • Guillen, Diogo
  • Kehoe, Patrick

Abstract

Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked at around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again after ward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. This paper shows that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995-2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, this paper documents a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seigniorage revenues, although inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seigniorage revenues. Finally, this paper discusses the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the fiscal and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Ayres, JoaÞo & García, Marcio & Guillen, Diogo & Kehoe, Patrick, 2019. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 9602, Inter-American Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:9602
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0001672
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Garcia, Marcio G. P., 1996. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: The case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-159, October.
    2. Pastore, Affonso Celso, 1994. "Déficit Público, a Sustentabilidade do Crescimento das Dívidas Interna e Externa, Senhoriagem e Inflação: Uma Análise do Regime Monetário Brasileiro," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 14(2), November.
    3. Sebastian Edwards & Márcio G. P. Garcia, 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number edwa05-1, January-J.
    4. Pastore, Affonso Celso, 1996. "Por que a política monetária perde eficácia?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 50(3), July.
    5. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
    6. Edwards, Sebastian & Garcia, Márcio G (ed.), 2008. "Financial Markets Volatility and Performance in Emerging Markets," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226184951.
    7. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2007. "On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2399-2408, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati & Andrew Powell, 2023. "Sovereign Debt Management," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 123-160, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 950, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Iacoella, Francesco & Justino, Patrica & Martorano, Bruni, 2020. "Roots of dissent: Trade liberalization and the rise of populism in Brazil," MERIT Working Papers 2020-043, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    4. Eduardo Cavallo & Eduardo Fernández Arias, 2023. "Strong External Balance Sheets for Resilient Economies," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 5-36, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Oliveira, Eleonora de & Palma, Andreza A. & Portugal, Marcelo S., 2024. "A Markov-Switching DSGE model for measuring the output gap in Brazil," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    6. Leopoldo Avellán & Arturo Galindo & Giulia Lotti, 2023. "Official Creditors: Providing More than Money," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Andrew Powell & Oscar Mauricio Valencia (ed.), Dealing with Debt, edition 1, chapter 7, pages 161-182, Inter-American Development Bank.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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