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The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016

Author

Listed:
  • Joao Ayres
  • Marcio Garcia
  • Diogo A. Guillén
  • Patrick J. Kehoe

Abstract

Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994. This last period coincided with severe balance of payments problems and economic stagnation that followed the external debt crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960–1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal deficits, passive monetary policy, and constraints on debt financing. The transition to the low-inflation period (1995–2016) was characterized by improvements in all of these features, but it did not lead to significant improvements in economic growth. In addition, we document a strong positive correlation between inflation rates and seigniorage revenues, although inflation rates are relatively high for modest levels of seigniorage revenues. Finally, we discuss the role of the weak institutional framework surrounding the fiscal and monetary authorities and the role of monetary passiveness and inflation indexation in accounting for the unique features of inflation dynamics in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Joao Ayres & Marcio Garcia & Diogo A. Guillén & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2019. "The Monetary and Fiscal History of Brazil, 1960-2016," NBER Working Papers 25421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25421
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Garcia, Marcio G. P., 1996. "Avoiding some costs of inflation and crawling toward hyperinflation: The case of the Brazilian domestic currency substitute," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 139-159, October.
    2. repec:sbe:breart:v:14:y:1994:i:2:a:2972 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J., 2007. "On the need for fiscal constraints in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2399-2408, November.
    4. Cati, Regina Celia & Garcia, Marcio G P & Perron, Pierre, 1999. "Unit Roots in the Presence of Abrupt Governmental Interventions with an Application to Brazilian Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 27-56, Jan.-Feb..
    5. Pastore, Affonso Celso, 1996. "Por que a política monetária perde eficácia?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 50(3), July.
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    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

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