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Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies

Author

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  • Mario Cimoli
  • Jose Antonio Ocampo
  • Gabriel Porcile
  • Nunzia Saporito

Abstract

This paper analyzes the impact of international financial cycles on structural change in developing economies. It is argued that the impact of these cycles depends on the specific combination of macroeconomic and industrial policies adopted by the developing economy. The cases of Brazil and Argentina are contrasted with those of Korea and China. In the Asian economies, macroeconomic policy has been a complementary tool along with industrial policy to foster the diversification of production and capabilities. Inversely, in the case of the Latin American countries, long periods of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation, combined with the weaknesses (or absence) of industrial policies, contributed to the loss of capabilities and lagging behind.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cimoli & Jose Antonio Ocampo & Gabriel Porcile & Nunzia Saporito, 2020. "Choosing sides in the trilemma: international financial cycles and structural change in developing economies," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 740-761, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecinnt:v:29:y:2020:i:7:p:740-761
    DOI: 10.1080/10438599.2020.1719631
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Senner & Didier Sornette, 2019. "The Holy Grail of Crypto Currencies: Ready to Replace Fiat Money?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(4), pages 966-1000, October.
    2. Alberto Botta & Giuliano Toshiro Yajima & Gabriel Porcile, 2023. "Structural change, productive development, and capital flows: does financial “bonanza” cause premature deindustrialization?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 433-473.
    3. Omer, Ozlem & Capaldo, Jeronim, 2023. "The risks of the wrong climate policy for developing countries: Scenarios for South Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    4. Botta, Alberto & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano & Porcile, Gabriel, 2023. "Pasinetti, Debt Sustainability and (Green) Structural Change at the Time of Global Finance: An Emerging and Developing Countries’ Perspective," CAFE Working Papers 25, Centre for Accountancy, Finance and Economics (CAFE), Birmingham City Business School, Birmingham City University.
    5. Passos, Nikolas & Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth models and comparative political economy in Latin America," SocArXiv dfyq4, Center for Open Science.
    6. Peter Newell & Freddie Daley & Olga Mikheeva & Iva Peša, 2023. "Mind the gap: The global governance of just transitions," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 14(3), pages 425-437, June.
    7. Morlin, Guilherme Spinato, 2022. "Growth led by government expenditure and exports: Public and external debt stability in a supermultiplier model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 586-598.
    8. Botta, Alberto & Porcile, Gabriel & Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano Toshiro, 2023. "Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 175-188.
    9. Carrera, Jorge & Montes-Rojas, Gabriel & Toledo, Fernando, 2023. "Global financial cycle, commodity terms of trade and financial spreads in emerging markets and developing economies," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 179-190.

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