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Make it or Break it: Vaccination Intention at the Time of Covid-19


  • Jacques Bughin
  • Michele Cincera
  • Kelly Peters
  • Dorota Reykowska
  • Marcin Zyszkiewicz
  • Rafal Ohme


This research updates early studies on the intention to be vaccinated against the Covid-19 virus among a representative sample of adults in 6 European countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden, and the UK) and differentiated by groups of “acceptors”, “refusers”, and “ hesitant”. The research relies on a set of traditional logistic and more complex classification techniques such as Neural Networks and Random Forest techniques to determine common predictors of vaccination preferences. The findings highlight that socio-demographics are not a reliable measure of vaccination propensity, after one controls for different risk perceptions, and illustrate the key role of institutional and peer trust for vaccination success. Policymakers must build vaccine promotion techniques differentiated according to “acceptors”, “refusers”, and “ hesitant”, while restoring much larger trust in their actions upfront since the pandemics if one wishes the vaccination coverage to close part of the gap to the level of herd immunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & Kelly Peters & Dorota Reykowska & Marcin Zyszkiewicz & Rafal Ohme, 2021. "Make it or Break it: Vaccination Intention at the Time of Covid-19," Working Papers TIMES² 2021-043, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ict:wpaper:2013/320284

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Post-Print hal-02381560, HAL.
    2. Yann Algan & Sergei Guriev & Elias Papaioannou & Evgenia Passari, 2017. "The European Trust Crisis and the Rise of Populism," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(2 (Fall)), pages 309-400.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2i9jel1usb85nr2j7tejsaldfu is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Sebastian Neumann-Böhme & Nirosha Elsem Varghese & Iryna Sabat & Pedro Pita Barros & Werner Brouwer & Job Exel & Jonas Schreyögg & Tom Stargardt, 2020. "Once we have it, will we use it? A European survey on willingness to be vaccinated against COVID-19," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 21(7), pages 977-982, September.
    5. An Nguyen & Daniel Catalan-Matamoros, 2020. "Digital Mis/Disinformation and Public Engagement with Health and Science Controversies: Fresh Perspectives from Covid-19," Media and Communication, Cogitatio Press, vol. 8(2), pages 323-328.
    6. Fazio, Russell H & Powell, Martha C & Williams, Carol J, 1989. "The Role of Attitude Accessibility in the Attitude-to-Behavior Process," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 280-289, December.
    7. Esping-Andersen, Gosta, 1999. "Social Foundations of Postindustrial Economies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198742005, Decembrie.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Bughin & Michele Cincera & Evelyn Kiepfer & Dorota Reykowska & Florian Philippi & Marcin Żyszkiewicz & Rafal Ohme & Dirk Frank, 2023. "Vaccination or NPI? A conjoint analysis of German citizens' preferences in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 24(1), pages 39-52, February.
    2. Kazunobu Hayakawa, 2022. "Impacts of Vaccination on International Trade During the Pandemic Era," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 60(4), pages 206-227, December.

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    More about this item


    Covid-19; vaccine strategy; deconfinement; priority groups; random-forest; tree classification;
    All these keywords.

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