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Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis

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  • John Freebairn

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne)

  • Peter Dawkins

    (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)

Abstract

This paper summarises a large project involving many studies to evaluate the effects on employment and unemployment in Australia of macroeconomic, wage restraint, taxation and social security systems, and of education and training policies. One set of studies finds that the NAIRU is an uncertain estimated number, others suggest a number or a range of long term equilibrium unemployment rates, and by implication the lower bound to achievable non-inflationary unemployment rate is uncertain. Simulations with the TRYM, MONASH and VAR models find that stimulatory macroeconomic policies and wage restraint policies increase employment in the short run. Simulations with the MITTS and VAR models, and comparisons of employment experiences across countries, find that changes in tax and social security systems, as they alter incentives, affect labour supply and job search decisions, and employment.

Suggested Citation

  • John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  • Handle: RePEc:iae:iaewps:wp2003n22
    as

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    File URL: http://melbourneinstitute.unimelb.edu.au/downloads/working_paper_series/wp2003n22.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Creedy & Alan Duncan, 2005. "Aggregating Labour Supply and Feedback Effects in Microsimulation," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 8(3), pages 277-290, September.
    2. Harding, Don & Kam, Timothy, 2001. "Perspectives on Unemployment from a General Equilibrium Search Model," MPRA Paper 3696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Peter Summers, 2000. "Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, June.
    5. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    6. Lei Lei Song & Elizabeth Webster, 2003. "How Segmented are Skilled and Unskilled Labour Markets: the Case of Beveridge Curves," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 332-345, September.
    7. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Labour Market Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n15, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2003. "A New Specification of Labour Supply in the MONASH Model with an Illustrative Application," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 36(1), pages 22-40.
    9. Jim Thomson, 2000. "The Labour Market in Macroeconomic Models of the Australian Economy," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n18, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    10. Lye, J N & McDonald, I M & Sibly, H, 2001. "An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 77(236), pages 35-50, March.
    11. Lei Lei Song & John Freebairn & Don Harding, 2001. "Policy Options to Reduce Unemployment: TRYM Simulations," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n19, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    12. John P Martin, 1998. "What Works Among Active Labour Market Policies: Evidence from OECD Countries' Experiences," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Guy Debelle & Jeff Borland (ed.), Unemployment and the Australian Labour Market Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Jeff Borland & Ian McDonald, 2000. "Cross-Country Studies of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n17, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    14. John Creedy & Guyonne Kalb & Hsein Kew, 2001. "The Effects of Flattening the Effective Marginal Rate Structure in Australia: Policy Simulations Using the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2001n10, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    15. Jeff Borland, 2000. "Disaggregated Models of Unemployment in Australia," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2000n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    16. Prakash Loungani & Bharat Trehan, 1997. "Explaining unemployment: sectoral vs aggregate shocks," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-15.
    17. John Creedy & Alan S. Duncan & Mark Harris & Rosanna Scutella, 2002. "Microsimulation Modelling of Taxation and the Labour Market," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2796.
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