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Perspectives on Unemployment from a General Equilibrium Search Model

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  • Harding, Don
  • Kam, Timothy

Abstract

Australia has experienced a varied track record on unemployment. For the third quarter of the 20th century unemployment averaged 2.0 per cent. This is bracketed by average unemployment rates of 8.6 and 7.4 per cent in the second and fourth quarter centuries. Explanations of this phenomenon vary. In this paper we explore supply side explanations using a model developed by Ljungqvist and Sargent (LS). We adapt the LS model to the Australian tax and welfare system and calibrate it to the Australian economy. Two simulation experiments are considered. In the first we study the effect of varying the unemployment benefit on the level and composition of unemployment. In the second simulation we examine the effects of increasing the degree of turbulence experienced by the economy. In the former simulation we find that: raising benefits causes a rise in the duration of unemployment; unemployment rates rise; across voluntary and involuntary unemployment classes; the rise is relatively larger in the range of low skill workers whose job-search intensity falls the greatest. Job-search intensity of voluntarily unemployed workers does not change with benefits; and reservation wages of individuals with high skill levels are unaffected by unemployment benefits but the reservation wage low skilled workers increases with the unemployment benefit. In the second simulation increasing turbulence in the economic environment causes an increase in total unemployment and in involuntary unemployment. However, voluntary unemployment falls, because people alter their reservation wages and search intensities in response to increased turbulence; overall the average duration of unemployment rises. Finally, we replicate the LS finding that the adverse consequences of increased turbulence are larger in economies with more generous welfare systems. We interpret the findings reported above as suggesting that the LS model is a useful tool of analysis and in the final version of the paper we propose to calibrate the model to the changes in the level of unemployment benefits and the progressivity of the income tax schedule that occurred towards the end of the third quarter of the 20th century. Our objectives will be to quantify how much of the change in unemployment can be attributed to these factors and to quantify the extent to which higher unemployment is attributable to increased turbulence.

Suggested Citation

  • Harding, Don & Kam, Timothy, 2001. "Perspectives on Unemployment from a General Equilibrium Search Model," MPRA Paper 3696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:3696
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    2. Samuel Bentolila & Giuseppe Bertola, 1990. "Firing Costs and Labour Demand: How Bad is Eurosclerosis?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 381-402.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 1994. "The Growth of Earnings Instability in the U.S. Labor Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(2), pages 217-272.
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    Cited by:

    1. John Freebairn & Peter Dawkins, 2003. "Unemployment Policy: Lessons from Economic Analysis," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2003n22, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Search model; turbulence; unemployment; skill accumulation; tax and welfare system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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