Optimism bias in project appraisal: deception or selection?
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References listed on IDEAS
- Jean‐Pierre Benoît & Juan Dubra, 2011. "Apparent Overconfidence," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1591-1625, September.
- Nellthorp, J. & Mackie, P. J., 2000. "The UK Roads Review--a hedonic model of decision making," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 127-138, April.
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More about this item
KeywordsCost overruns; Forecast accuracy; Cost-benefit analysis; Appraisal; Selection bias; Winner’s curse;
- R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
- R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
NEP fieldsThis paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-09 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBE-2013-06-09 (Cognitive & Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-CDM-2013-06-09 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-FOR-2013-06-09 (Forecasting)
- NEP-PPM-2013-06-09 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-TRE-2013-06-09 (Transport Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-06-09 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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