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Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects

Author

Listed:
  • Lundberg, Mattias

    (CTS)

  • Jenpanitsub, Anchalee

    (Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand)

  • Pyddoke, Roger

    (VTI)

Abstract

Cost overrun of transport projects is one of the most important problems in transport planning. It also makes the result of the cost-benefit analyses uncertain, thus decreasing their usefulness for decision making. In recent years more emphasis has been put on improving cost calculations and reducing cost overruns, in Sweden and internationally. Still cost overruns have not decreased. We find that the average cost overrun in Swedish road projects is similar to other countries, while it is lower than in other countries for rail. Small projects (

Suggested Citation

  • Lundberg, Mattias & Jenpanitsub, Anchalee & Pyddoke, Roger, 2011. "Cost overruns in Swedish transport projects," Working papers in Transport Economics 2011:11, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2011_011
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    File URL: http://www.transportportal.se/SWoPEc/CTS2011-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joseph Berechman & Li Chen, 2011. "Incorporating Risk of Cost Overruns into Transportation Capital Projects Decision-Making," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 45(1), pages 83-103, January.
    2. Bent Flyvbjerg, 2009. "Survival of the unfittest: why the worst infrastructure gets built--and what we can do about it," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 25(3), pages 344-367, Autumn.
    3. Odeck, James, 2004. "Cost overruns in road construction--what are their sizes and determinants?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 43-53, January.
    4. Ram Singh, 2009. "Delays and Cost Overruns in Infrastructure Projects -- An Enquiry into Extents, Causes and Remedies," Working papers 181, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    5. Hugo Priemus & Bent Flyvbjerg & Bert van Wee (ed.), 2008. "Decision-Making on Mega-Projects," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eliasson, Jonas & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2013. "Cost overruns and demand shortfalls – Deception or selection?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 105-113.
    2. Dejan Makovšek & Marian Moszoro, 2018. "Risk pricing inefficiency in public–private partnerships," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 298-321, May.
    3. Molinari, Laura & Haezendonck, Elvira & Mabillard, Vincent, 2023. "Cost overruns of Belgian transport infrastructure projects: Analyzing variations over three land transport modes and two project phases," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 167-179.
    4. Asplund, Disa & Eliasson, Jonas, 2016. "Does uncertainty make cost-benefit analyses pointless?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 195-205.
    5. Makovšek, Dejan, 2014. "Systematic construction risk, cost estimation mechanism and unit price movements," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 135-145.
    6. Miranda Sarmento, J.J., 2014. "Public private partnerships," Other publications TiSEM c7d4c978-234c-4f88-83ed-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Catalão, Francisco Pinheiro & Cruz, Carlos Oliveira & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2019. "The determinants of cost deviations and overruns in transport projects, an endogenous models approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 224-238.
    8. James Odeck, 2019. "Variation in cost overruns of transportation projects: an econometric meta-regression analysis of studies reported in the literature," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1345-1368, August.
    9. Love, Peter E.D. & Zhou, Jingyang & Edwards, David J. & Irani, Zahir & Sing, Chun-Pong, 2017. "Off the rails: The cost performance of infrastructure rail projects," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 14-29.
    10. Eliasson, Jonas & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2013. "Optimism bias in project appraisal: deception or selection?," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:6, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    11. Odeck, James, 2014. "Do reforms reduce the magnitudes of cost overruns in road projects? Statistical evidence from Norway," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 68-79.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cost overrun; cost estimates; actual costs; successive calculation; reference class forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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