Real Wages and the Origins of Modern Economic Growth in Germany, 16th to 19th Centuries
The study develops a real wage series for Germany c. 1500-1850 and analyzes its relationship with population size. From 1690 data density allows the estimation of a structural time series model of this relationship. The major results are the following: First, there was a strong negative relationship between population and the real wage until the middle of the seventeenth century. The dramatic rise of material welfare during the Thirty Years’ War was thus entirely due to the war-related population loss. Second, the relationship between the real wage and population size was weaker in the eighteenth than in the sixteenth century; the fall of the marginal product of labor was less pronounced, and the beginning of the eighteenth century saw a marked increase of labour demand. Third, labor productivity underwent a strong positive shock during the late 1810s and early 1820s, and continued to rise at a weaker pace during the following decades. This growth was only temporarily interrupted by negative shocks during the late 1840s and early 1850s. Results two and three suggest the onset of sustained economic growth well before the beginnings of industrialization, which set in during the third quarter of the nineteenth century.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March.
- Kindleberger, Charles P., 1991. "The Economic Crisis of 1619 to 1623," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(01), pages 149-175, March.
- Broadberry, Stephen N & Gupta, Bishnupriya, 2005. "The Early Modern Great Divergence: Wages, Prices and Economic Development in Europe and Asia, 1500-1800," CEPR Discussion Papers 4947, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- O Rourke, Kevin H, 2006. "The worldwide economic impact of the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars, 1793 1815," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 123-149, March.
- Nikolaus Wolf, 2012. "Crises and Policy Responses within the Political Trilemma: Europe, 1929-1936 and 2008-2011," Working Papers 0016, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
- Helmut Luetkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2000.
"Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Level Shift at Unknown Time,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0342, Econometric Society.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
- Saikkonen, Pentti & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 1999. "Testing for a unit root in a time series with a level shift at unknown time," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,72, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
- Ulrich Pfister, 2010. "Consumer prices and wages in Germany, 1500 - 1850," CQE Working Papers 1510, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
- A'Hearn, Brian & Baten, Jörg & Crayen, Dorothee, 2009.
"Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the History of Human Capital,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7277, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- A'Hearn, Brian & Baten, Jörg & Crayen, Dorothee, 2009. "Quantifying Quantitative Literacy: Age Heaping and the History of Human Capital," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(03), pages 783-808, September.
- Brian A'Hearn & Jörg Baten & Dorothee Crayen, 2006. "Quantifying quantitative literacy: Age heaping and the history of human capital," Economics Working Papers 996, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Gregory Clark, 2005.
"The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004,"
539, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
- Alan Fernihough, 2013.
"Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy, 1650–1881,"
Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 311-332, February.
- Alan Fernihough, 2010. "Malthusian Dynamics in a Diverging Europe: Northern Italy 1650-1881," Working Papers 201037, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Burhop, Carsten & Wolff, Guntram B., 2005. "A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851 1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(03), pages 613-657, September.
- Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220.
- Geraldine David & Kim Oosterlinck, 2012. "War, Inflation, Monetary Reform and the Art Market," Working Papers 0012, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
- Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
- Samad Sarferaz & Martin Uebele, 2007.
"Tracking Down the Business Cycle: A Dynamic Factor Model For Germany 1820-1913,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2007-039, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Sarferaz, Samad & Uebele, Martin, 2009. "Tracking down the business cycle: A dynamic factor model for Germany 1820-1913," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 368-387, July.
- N. F. R. Crafts & C. K. Harley, 1992. "Output growth and the British industrial revolution: a restatement of the Crafts-Harley view," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 45(4), pages 703-730, November.
- Ulrich Pfister & Georg Fertig, 2010. "The population history of Germany: research strategy and preliminary results," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Broadberry, Stephen & Burhop, Carsten, 2010. "Real Wages and Labor Productivity in Britain and Germany, 1871–1938: A Unified Approach to the International Comparison of Living Standards," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 70(02), pages 400-427, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Paul Sharp)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.