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The regional pricing of risk: An empirical investigation of the MENA equity determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Khaled Guesmi

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sandrine Kablan

    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12)

  • Aymen Belgacem

    (LEO - Laboratoire d'économie d'Orleans [2008-2011] - UO - Université d'Orléans - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Using a sample of five-MENA emerging countries (Egypt, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, and Turkey) during the period 1996-2013, this study highlights the main factors that might influence regional integration of stock markets. We propose an advantageous econometric approach based on a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) to explore major sources of time-varying risks. We specifically apply the multivariate BEKK-GARCH process to simultaneously estimate the ICAPM for each country. The study puts in evidence that inflation, volatility of exchange rates, yield spread, current account deficit, dividend yield and economic growth are among the key determinants of regional integration in the MENA context whatever is the measure of exchange rate risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Khaled Guesmi & Sandrine Kablan & Aymen Belgacem, 2017. "The regional pricing of risk: An empirical investigation of the MENA equity determinants," Working Papers hal-01527654, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01527654
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01527654
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multivariate GARCH; regional integration; ICAPM; MENA JEL Classification: F36; C32; G12;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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