IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-01885949.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model

Author

Listed:
  • Edwin Le Héron

    (CED - Centre Émile Durkheim - IEP Bordeaux - Sciences Po Bordeaux - Institut d'études politiques de Bordeaux - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Nicolas Yol

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Migrants' remittances are an essential source of income in many developing countries. In this article, we build a post-Keynesian stock–flow consistent model adapted to Moldova, one of the top recipients of remittances. In addition to increasing household consumption, migrants' transfers have strong effects on economic growth in Moldova. However, remittances are very sensitive to the economic conditions in migrants' destination countries, especially since the 2008 global financial crisis. After including remittances in consumption behavior and lenders' risk, we run simulations to show how shocks in migrants' destination countries (that is, Europe and Russia) impact the Moldovan economy through fluctuations in remittances. First, the increasing instability of remittances explains a significant portion of the economic volatility experienced by Moldova. Second, the high level of imports implies a weak multiplier effect of remittances, leading to an unsustainable pattern of growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Edwin Le Héron & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The macroeconomic effects of migrants’ remittances in Moldova: a stock–flow consistent model," Post-Print halshs-01885949, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01885949
    DOI: 10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01885949
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01885949/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4337/ejeep.2018.00039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2011. "Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 914-933, April.
    2. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    3. Edwin Le Heron & Tarik Mouakil, 2008. "A Post‐Keynesian Stock‐Flow Consistent Model For Dynamic Analysis Of Monetary Policy Shock On Banking Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(3), pages 405-440, July.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Republic of Moldova: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2005/054, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Eric Rougier & François Combarnous (ed.), 2017. "The Diversity of Emerging Capitalisms in Developing Countries," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-49947-5, September.
    6. Edwin Le Heron, 2011. "Confidence and financial crisis in a post-Keynesian stock flow consistent model," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 361-387.
    7. Gianluca Orefice, 2015. "International migration and trade agreements: The new role of PTAs," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(1), pages 310-334, February.
    8. Jeffrey Frankel, 2011. "Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, February.
    9. Ambrosius, Christian & Cuecuecha, Alfredo, 2016. "Remittances and the Use of Formal and Informal Financial Services," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 80-98.
    10. Rios Avila, Fernando & Schlarb, Eva, 2008. "Bank accounts and savings - the impact of remittances and migration: a case study of Moldova," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 448, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    11. Cenusa, Denis & Emerson, Michael & Kovziridse, Tamara & Movchan, Veronika, 2014. "Russia�s Punitive Trade Policy Measures towards Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia," CEPS Papers 9668, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    12. Ms. Dalia S Hakura & Mr. Ralph Chami & Mr. Peter J Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 2009/091, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Bayangos, Veronica & Jansen, Karel, 2011. "Remittances and Competitiveness: The Case of the Philippines," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 1834-1846.
    14. Devesh KAPUR, 2004. "Remittances: The New Development Mantra?," G-24 Discussion Papers 29, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    15. Wynne Godley & Marc Lavoie, 2012. "A Simple Model of Three Economies with Two Currencies: The Eurozone and the USA," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Marc Lavoie & Gennaro Zezza (ed.), The Stock-Flow Consistent Approach, chapter 7, pages 159-188, Palgrave Macmillan.
    16. Démurger, Sylvie & Wang, Xiaoqian, 2016. "Remittances and expenditure patterns of the left behinds in rural China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 177-190.
    17. Catrinescu, Natalia & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel & Piracha, Matloob & Quillin, Bryce, 2009. "Remittances, Institutions, and Economic Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 81-92, January.
    18. Combes, Jean-Louis & Ebeke, Christian, 2011. "Remittances and Household Consumption Instability in Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1076-1089, July.
    19. Thanh Le, 2009. "Trade, Remittances, Institutions, and Economic Growth," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 391-408.
    20. Acosta, Pablo A. & Lartey, Emmanuel K.K. & Mandelman, Federico S., 2009. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 102-116, September.
    21. Adams Jr., Richard H. & Cuecuecha, Alfredo, 2010. "Remittances, Household Expenditure and Investment in Guatemala," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 1626-1641, November.
    22. Marc Lavoie & Jun Zhao, 2010. "A Study Of The Diversification Of China'S Foreign Reserves Within A Three‐Country Stock‐Flow Consistent Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 558-592, July.
    23. Pedersen, Peder J. & Pytlikova, Mariola & Smith, Nina, 2008. "Selection and network effects--Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(7), pages 1160-1186, October.
    24. Woodruff, Christopher & Zenteno, Rene, 2007. "Migration networks and microenterprises in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 509-528, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Olga Gagauz & Tatiana Tabac & Irina Pahomii, 2023. "Depopulation in Moldova: The main challenge in the context of extremly high emigration," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 21(1), pages 1-1.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/17g7senmu38qqa09nqh9tk9hbn is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Éric Rougier & Nicolas Yol, 2019. "The volatility effect of diaspora's location," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(6), pages 1796-1827, June.
    3. Bahadir, Berrak & Chatterjee, Santanu & Lebesmuehlbacher, Thomas, 2018. "The macroeconomic consequences of remittances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 214-232.
    4. Ma, Yechi & Chen, Zhiguo & Shinwari, Riazullah & Khan, Zeeshan, 2021. "Financialization, globalization, and Dutch disease: Is Dutch disease exist for resources rich countries?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Schneider, Friedrich & Khan, Shabeer & Baharom Abdul Hamid & Khan, Abidullah, 2019. "Does the tax undermine the effect of remittances on shadow economy?," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-67, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Imad El Hamma, 2018. "Migrant Remittances and Economic Growth: The Role of Financial Development and Institutional Quality," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 503-504, pages 123-142.
    7. Sena Kimm Gnangnon, 2019. "Remittances Inflows and Trade Policy," Remittances Review, Remittances Review, vol. 4(2), pages 117-142, October.
    8. Hannes Warnecke-Berger, 2022. "The financialization of remittances and the individualization of development: A new power geometry of global development," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 54(4), pages 702-721, June.
    9. Balli, Faruk & Rana, Faisal, 2015. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 107-116.
    10. Wadad Saad & Hassan Ayoub, 2019. "Remittances, Governance and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from MENA Region," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(8), pages 1-1, August.
    11. Gloria Clarissa O. Dzeha, 2016. "The decipher, theory or empirics: a review of remittance studies," African Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 5(2), pages 113-134.
    12. Faruk Balli & Faisal Rana, 2014. "Determinants of risk sharing through remittances: cross-country evidence," CAMA Working Papers 2014-12, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    13. Grabrucker, Katharina, 2021. "Effects of internal rural-urban migration on rural non-farm enterprises: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-85-21, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    14. Kabinet Kaba & Mahamat Moustapha, 2021. "Remittances and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from firm-level data," Working Papers DT/2021/07, DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation).
    15. Randazzo, Teresa & Piracha, Matloob, 2019. "Remittances and household expenditure behaviour: Evidence from Senegal∗," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 141-153.
    16. Hao, Linna & Ahmad, Shabbir & Chang, Hsu-Ling & Umar, Muhammad, 2021. "Knowledge spill-over and institutional quality role in controlling Dutch disease: A case of BRICS countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    17. Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2012. "Worker remittances, migration, accumulation and growth in poor developing countries: Survey and analysis of direct and indirect effects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 103-118.
    18. El Hamma Imad, 2017. "Do political institutions improve the effect of remittances on economic growth? Evidence South-Mediterranean countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 2133-2148.
    19. Jean-Louis Combes & Christian Hubert Ebeke & Mathilde Maurel & Urbain Thierry Yogo, 2011. "Remittances and the prevalence of working poor," Post-Print halshs-00587797, HAL.
    20. Ait Benhamou, Zouhair & Cassin, Lesly, 2021. "The impact of remittances on savings, capital and economic growth in small emerging countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 789-803.
    21. James Dzansi, 2013. "Do remittance inflows promote manufacturing growth?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 51(1), pages 89-111, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economy; migration; volatility; remittances; stock-flow consistent models; Moldova; business cycles; Remittances; Stock-flow consistent models; Business cycles; Migration; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01885949. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.