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Provoking Insurgency in a Federal State: Theory and Application to India

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  • Jean-Paul Azam

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Kartika Bhatia

    (The World Bank - The World Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents a model of provocation in a federation, where the local government triggers an insurgency with a view to acquire the control of some economic assets with the help of the central government. Some econometric support for this model is found using data on the Naxalite conflict that affects eight states of India. The tests performed control for endogeneity of the local government's police force interventions. They suggest that the latter are meant to amplify the violent activity of the insurgents, with a view to lure the central government to intervene and to help clear the ground for exploiting mineral deposits lying under the land of tribal people.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Paul Azam & Kartika Bhatia, 2017. "Provoking Insurgency in a Federal State: Theory and Application to India," Post-Print hal-04449321, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04449321
    DOI: 10.1007/s11127-016-0389-5
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04449321
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    2. Azam Jean-Paul, 2019. "Let’s Call their Bluff: The Politics of Econometric Methodology," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 25(4), pages 1-7, December.
    3. Azam, Jean-Paul & Ferret, Jérôme, 2022. "Radicalization of Islam or Peddling Radicalism? Lessons from the French Experience," TSE Working Papers 22-1296, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Nov 2023.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Insurgency; Provocation; Federation; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q38 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Government Policy (includes OPEC Policy)

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