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Money and risk aversion in a DSGE framework : a bayesian application to the euro zone

  • Jonathan Benchimol

    (Economics Department - ESSEC Business School)

  • André Fourçans

    (Economics Department - ESSEC Business School)

Cet article présente un modèle théorique et empirique de la zone euro, en mettant en perspective le rôle de la monnaie. Le modèle s'inscrit dans le cadre " Nouveaux Keynésiens-DSGE ", la monnaie étant introduite dans la fonction d'utilité des ménages sous une forme non-séparable. En testant le modèle selon la méthode bayésienne nous expliquons la variance de la production et de l'inflation, mais aussi du taux d'intérêt, des balances réelles, de la production et des balances réelles en prix flexibles. Le rôle de la monnaie est analysé plus particulièrement. Nous montrons que son impact sur la production dépend du degré d'aversion au risque des agents, qu'il augmente avec ce degré, et qu'il devient significatif quand l'aversion au risque inter-temporel est suffisamment élevée. L'impact direct de la monnaie est en revanche très limité pour expliquer la variance de l'inflation, la politique monétaire, via le taux d'intérêt, constituant le facteur dominant.

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Date of creation: Apr 2010
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Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00572374
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