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Hayek on Expectations: The Interplay between Two Complex Systems

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  • Agnès Festré

    (Université Côte d'Azur, CNRS, GREDEG, France)

Abstract

In this paper, we argue that Hayek's approach to expectations can be better understood if one takes into account the interplay between two related complex evolving systems: the cognitive system and the system of behavioural rules of action. The interplay between these two systems involves both positive and negative feedback mechanisms so that an individual system of rules can produce higher order regularities that preserve their existence over time. Our contribution complements existing work on Hayek's cognitive theory by providing insights on how Hayek's approach to expectations can inform modern behavioural economics.

Suggested Citation

  • Agnès Festré, 2018. "Hayek on Expectations: The Interplay between Two Complex Systems," GREDEG Working Papers 2018-28, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2018-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Agnès Festré & Pierre Garrouste, 2009. "The economic analysis of social norms: A reappraisal of Hayek’s legacy," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 22(3), pages 259-279, September.
    2. Mikhail Anufriev & Cars Hommes & Raoul Philipse, 2013. "Evolutionary selection of expectations in positive and negative feedback markets," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 663-688, July.
    3. Richard H. Thaler & Cass R. Sunstein, 2003. "Libertarian Paternalism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(2), pages 175-179, May.
    4. Boettke, Peter J, 2002. "Information and Knowledge: Austrian Economics in Search of its Uniqueness," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 15(4), pages 263-274, December.
    5. Hommes,Cars, 2013. "Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107019294, April.
    6. Bruce Caldwell, 2004. "Some Reflections on F.A. Hayek's The Sensory Order," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 239-254, October.
    7. Andreoni, James, 1990. "Impure Altruism and Donations to Public Goods: A Theory of Warm-Glow Giving?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(401), pages 464-477, June.
    8. William Butos & Roger Koppl, 1993. "Hayekian expectations: Theory and empirical applications," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 303-329, September.
    9. Koppl, Roger, 2010. "Some epistemological implications of economic complexity," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 859-872, December.
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    12. Cass R. Sunstein & Richard H. Thaler, 2003. "Libertarian paternalism is not an oxymoron," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 48(Jun).
    13. Richard Arena & Agnès Festré, 2006. "Knowledge and Beliefs in Economics: The Case of the Austrian Tradition," Chapters,in: Knowledge, Beliefs and Economics, chapter 3 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Birner Jack, 1995. "The surprising place of cognitive psychology in the work of F.A. Hayek," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hayek; emergence; knowledge; expectations;

    JEL classification:

    • B25 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Historical; Institutional; Evolutionary; Austrian; Stockholm School
    • B4 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Economic Methodology
    • B53 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches - - - Austrian
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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