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Hayekian expectations: Theory and empirical applications

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  • William Butos
  • Roger Koppl

Abstract

We show that the orderliness of market processes and outcomes, and hence the realization and coordination of individuals' plans, are dependent on the social environment in which individuals function. In specific, when atomicity and stable (social) rules are compromised in the case of Big Players, markets are less orderly despite the fact that individuals are behaving rationally.—The paper provides an account of individual rationality by generating a theory of expectations based on Hayek's cognitive theory. Hayekian expectations are coherent, competitive, and endogenous. This suggests that expectational analysis must take account of the context of constraint—the “environment” or what we call “filtering conditions”—within which individuals function and to which they must adapt. The paper provides a theoretical analysis of expectations at the individual level and shows that the particular behaviors stemming from those expectations require a specification of the rules governing social and market activities. Copyright George Mason University 1993

Suggested Citation

  • William Butos & Roger Koppl, 1993. "Hayekian expectations: Theory and empirical applications," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 303-329, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:copoec:v:4:y:1993:i:3:p:303-329
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02393266
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    7. William N. Butos & Roger G. Koppl, 1995. "The Varieties of Subjectivism: Keynes and Hayek on Expectations," Method and Hist of Econ Thought 9505001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 1995.
    8. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. William Butos, 2003. "Knowledge Questions: Hayek, Keynes and Beyond," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 16(4), pages 291-307, December.
    2. Philipp Bagus, 2008. "Monetary policy as bad medicine: The volatile relationship between business cycles and asset prices," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 21(4), pages 283-300, December.
    3. Roger Koppl & William Butos, 2001. "Confidence in Keynes and Hayek: Reply to Burczak," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 81-86.
    4. Van Den Hauwe Ludwig, 2016. "Understanding Financial Instability: Minsky Versus the Austrians," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 25-60, July.
    5. Shinji Teraji, 2014. "On cognition and cultural evolution," Mind & Society: Cognitive Studies in Economics and Social Sciences, Springer;Fondazione Rosselli, vol. 13(2), pages 167-182, November.
    6. Marta Podemska-Mikluch, 2014. "Public Policy: Object of Choice or Emergent Phenomena? Learning from the Implementation of the Medical Reimbursement Act in Poland," Advances in Austrian Economics, in: Steven Horwitz & Roger Koppl (ed.),Entangled Political Economy, volume 18, pages 93-110, Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    7. Miguel A. Durán, 2005. "The problems of the the Co-Ordination problem," ThE Papers 05/09, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    8. Hoffmann, Andreas & Urbansky, Björn, 2012. "Order, displacements and recurring financial crises," Working Papers 108, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    9. Agnès Festré & Pierre Garrouste, 2016. "Hayek on Expectations: The Interplay between two Complex Systems," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-13, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    10. R. Koppl, 2006. "Austrian economics at the cutting edge," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 231-241, December.
    11. Ahmed, Ehsan & Koppl, Roger & Rosser, J. Jr. & White, Mark V., 1997. "Complex bubble persistence in closed-end country funds," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 19-37, January.
    12. Alexander William Salter, 2013. "Not all NGDP Is Created Equal: A Critique of Market Monetarism," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 29(Fall 2013), pages 41-52.
    13. Nikolai Wenzel, 2010. "From contract to mental model: Constitutional culture as a fact of the social sciences," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 23(1), pages 55-78, March.
    14. Theodore Burczak, 2001. "Profit Expectations and Confidence: Some unresolved issues in the Austrian/Post-Keynesian debate," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(1), pages 59-80.
    15. Simon Bilo, 2018. "Entrepreneurial Errors in a Kaleidic Democracy," Journal of Private Enterprise, The Association of Private Enterprise Education, vol. 33(Summer 20), pages 53-66.
    16. Andreas Hoffmann & Björn Urbansky, 2015. "Policy Shifts and Financial Instability in Emerging Markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 455-469, August.
    17. William Butos & Roger Koppl, 2004. "Carabelli & de Vecchi on Keynes and Hayek," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 239-247.
    18. Facchini, François, 2004. "La théorie autrichienne des cycles : une théorie de la récurrence des erreurs collectives d’anticipation," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 80(1), pages 67-94, Mars.
    19. Salvatore Rizzello & Margherita Turvani, 2000. "Institutions Meet Mind: The Way out of a Deadlock," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 165-180, June.
    20. Nathaniel Paxson & Nikolai G. Wenzel, 2016. "Praxeology, Experimental Economics and the Process of Choice: F.A. Hayek and Vernon Smith on the Misesian Action Axiom," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 29(2), pages 163-176, June.
    21. Koppl, Roger G., 1996. "It is high time we take our ignorance more seriously," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 259-272.
    22. Butos William Ν. & Koppl Roger, 1999. "Hayek And Kirzner At The Keynesian Beauty Contest," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2-3), pages 1-20, June.
    23. L. Van Den Hauwe, 1998. "Evolution and the Production of Rules—Some Preliminary Remarks," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 81-117, January.
    24. Roberta Patalano, 2012. "Imagination and Perception as Gateways to Knowledge: The Unexplored Affinity between Boulding and Hayek," Chapters, in: Richard Arena & Agnès Festré & Nathalie Lazaric (ed.),Handbook of Knowledge and Economics, chapter 6, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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