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The Impact of Population Growth on Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction in Uganda

  • Stephan Klasen


    (University of Goettingen)

  • David Lawson

    (University of Manchester)

The paper examines the link between population and per capita economic growth, and poverty, using the interesting case study of Uganda. Although Uganda has recently experienced excellent economic growth and poverty reduction, it currently has one of the highest population growth rates in the world which, due to the inherent demographic momentum, will persist for some time to come. By combining both a macro and microeconometric approach, using panel data, we are able to consider the impact of population growth on per capita economic growth and poverty. We find both theoretical considerations and strong empirical evidence suggest that the currently high population growth puts a considerable break on per capita growth prospects in Uganda. Moreover, it contributes significantly to low achievement in poverty reduction and is associated with households being persistently poor and moving into poverty. This is therefore likely to make substantial improvements in poverty reduction, and per capita growth, very difficult.

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Paper provided by University of Goettingen, Department of Economics in its series Departmental Discussion Papers with number 133.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 25 May 2007
Date of revision: 25 May 2007
Handle: RePEc:got:vwldps:133
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  1. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  2. N. S. Ssewanyana & A J. Okidi & D. Angemi & V. Barungi, 2004. "Understanding the determinants of income inequality in Uganda," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-29, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  3. Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  4. Pritchett, Lant H. & DEC, 1994. "Desired fertility and the impact of population policies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1273, The World Bank.
  5. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1856, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  6. Diego Angemi & N.S. Ssewanyana, 2004. "Understanding the Determinants of Income Inequality in Uganda," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-29, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  7. Michael Kremer & Daniel Chen, 2000. "Income-distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility," NBER Working Papers 7530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Jean Drèze & Mamta Murthi, 2001. "Fertility, Education, and Development: Evidence from India," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 33-63.
  9. DE LA CROIX, David & DOEPKE, Matthias, . "Inequality and growth: why differential fertility matters," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1676, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  10. David Lawson & Andy Mckay & John Okidi, 2006. "Poverty persistence and transitions in Uganda: A combined qualitative and quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1225-1251.
  11. Stephan Klasen & Silke Woltermann, 2005. "The impact of demographic dynamics on economic development, poverty and inequality in Mozambique," Departmental Discussion Papers 126, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  12. Stephan Klasen & Claudia Wink, 2003. ""Missing Women": Revisiting The Debate," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2-3), pages 263-299.
  13. John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the Impact of Policy upon Chronic and Transitory Poverty in Rural Pakistan," Econometrics 0004003, EconWPA.
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