Population Growth, (Per Capita) Economic Growth, and Poverty Reduction in Uganda: Theory and Evidence
This paper examines the link between population and per capita economic growth in Uganda. After showing that Uganda has one of the highest population growth rates in the world which, due to the inherent demographic momentum, will persist for some time to come, it then considers the impact of population growth on per capita economic growth. It finds that both theoretical considerations as well as strong empirical evidence suggest that the currently high population growth puts a considerable break on per capita growth prospects in Uganda. Moreover, it contributes significantly to low achievements in education, health, and poverty reduction and will make improvements in these areas very difficult. It may also be an important factor in the increase of inequality. If Uganda began a period of sustained fertility decline, the estimates reviewed here would suggest that this could boost medium term per capita growth rates by between 0.5-0.6 percentage points per year; considering the favourable age structure dynamics such a fertility decline would generate, per capita growth could increase by between 1.5 and 3 percentage points. It could also significantly contribute to improvements in poverty, inequality, education, and health outcomes. The note emphasizes the importance of a concerted effort to promote female education (including progression, completion, and secondary education), female formal sector employment, investments in reproductive and child health as well as family planning services, and government political leadership to promote smaller families.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||This paper is written as part of a work program on gender and growth in Uganda, undertaken at the request of the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development and the PEAP Gender Group as a contribution to the PEAP revision process. I am grateful for inputs from David Lawson, as well as helpful comments from David Bevan, Michael Grimm, Andrew Keith, John MacKinnon, Fiona Davies, Jenny Yates, members of the World Bank country office, and Sudarshan Canagarajah. Funding from DFID in support of this work is gratefully acknowledged.|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Platz der Göttinger Sieben 3 - D-37073 Göttingen|
Web page: http://www.economics.uni-goettingen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lawson, David & McKay, Andrew & Okidi, John A., 2004.
"Poverty Persistence and Transitions in Uganda: A Combined Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis,"
Development Economics and Public Policy Working Papers
30555, University of Manchester, Institute for Development Policy and Management (IDPM).
- David Lawson & Andy Mckay & John Okidi, 2006. "Poverty persistence and transitions in Uganda: A combined qualitative and quantitative analysis," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(7), pages 1225-1251.
- David Lawson, 2005. "Poverty Persistence and Transitions in Uganda: A Combined Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-004, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Diego Angemi & N.S. Ssewanyana, 2004. "Understanding the Determinants of Income Inequality in Uganda," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/2004-29, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2001.
"Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters,"
UCLA Economics Working Papers
803, UCLA Department of Economics.
- David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2003. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1091-1113, September.
- DE LA CROIX, David & DOEPKE, Matthias, 2001. "Inequality and Growth : Why Differential Fertility Matters," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- DE LA CROIX, David & DOEPKE, Matthias, . "Inequality and growth: why differential fertility matters," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1676, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1856, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1998. "Geography and Economic Development," NBER Working Papers 6849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
- Stephan Klasen & Claudia Wink, 2003. ""Missing Women": Revisiting The Debate," Feminist Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(2-3), pages 263-299.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- N. S. Ssewanyana & A J. Okidi & D. Angemi & V. Barungi, 2004. "Understanding the determinants of income inequality in Uganda," CSAE Working Paper Series 2004-29, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
- Kremer, Michael & Chen, Daniel L, 2002.
"Income Distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 227-58, September.
- Michael Kremer & Daniel Chen, 2000. "Income-distribution Dynamics with Endogenous Fertility," NBER Working Papers 7530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:got:vwldps:125. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ben Schroeter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.