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The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information

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  • Yuichio Waki
  • Richard Dennis
  • Ippei Fujiwara

Abstract

This paper considers the optimal degree of discretion in monetary policy when the central bank conducts policy based on its private information about the state of the economy and is unable to commit. Society seeks to maximize social welfare by imposing restrictions on the central bank's actions over time, and the central bank takes these restrictions and the New Keynesian Phillips curve as constraints. By solving a dynamic mechanism design problem we nd that it is optimal to grant\constrained discretion" to the central bank by imposing both upper and lower bounds on permissible in ation, and that these bounds must be set in a history-dependent way. The optimal degree of discretion varies over time with the severity of the time-inconsistency problem, and, although no discretion is optimal when the time-inconsistency problem is very severe, our numerical experiment suggests that no-discretion is a transient phenomenon, and that some discretion is granted eventually.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuichio Waki & Richard Dennis & Ippei Fujiwara, 2015. "The Optimal Degree of Monetary-Discretion in a New Keynesian Model with Private Information," Working Papers 2015_02, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  • Handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:2015_02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:wly:emetrp:v:82:y:2014:i:5:p:1557-1614 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Susan Athey & Kyle Bagwell & Chris Sanchirico, 2004. "Collusion and Price Rigidity," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(2), pages 317-349.
    3. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark Gertler & John Leahy, 2008. "A Phillips Curve with an Ss Foundation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(3), pages 533-572, June.
    5. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2014. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Persistent Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1557-1614, September.
    6. Sleet, Christopher, 2001. "On Credible Monetary Policy and Private Government Information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 338-376, July.
    7. Thomas, Jonathan & Worrall, Tim, 1990. "Income fluctuation and asymmetric information: An example of a repeated principal-agent problem," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 367-390, August.
    8. Fukushima, Kenichi & Waki, Yuichiro, 2013. "A polyhedral approximation approach to concave numerical dynamic programming," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2322-2335.
    9. Kurozumi, Takushi, 2008. "Optimal sustainable monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1277-1289, October.
    10. Manuel Amador & Kyle Bagwell, 2013. "The Theory of Optimal Delegation With an Application to Tariff Caps," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1541-1599, July.
    11. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fujiwara, Ippei & Waki, Yuichiro, 2015. "Private news and monetary policy forward guidance or (the expected virtue of ignorance)," Globalization Institute Working Papers 238, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Gino Cateau & Malik Shukayev, 2018. "Limited Commitment, Endogenous Credibility and the Challenges of Price-level Targeting," Staff Working Papers 18-61, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

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