IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fpr/masspp/139137.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Welfare impacts of seasonal maize price fluctuations in Malawi

Author

Listed:
  • Chiwaula, Levison
  • De Weerdt, Joachim
  • Duchoslav, Jan
  • Goeb, Joseph
  • Gondwe, Anderson
  • Jolex, Aubrey

Abstract

Maize prices fluctuate significantly throughout the year in Malawi, creating winners and losers depending on who is selling and who is buying the staple at different times. We link maize market price data to nationally and temporally representative household survey data on maize sales and purchases to quantify welfare gains and losses throughout the year. A stable maize price would lead to only a modest increase in Malawi’s total social surplus when summed across a whole year, but a dramatic reduction in hunger during the lean season. We discuss policy options to smooth maize prices throughout the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Chiwaula, Levison & De Weerdt, Joachim & Duchoslav, Jan & Goeb, Joseph & Gondwe, Anderson & Jolex, Aubrey, 2024. "Welfare impacts of seasonal maize price fluctuations in Malawi," MaSSP working papers 45, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
  • Handle: RePEc:fpr:masspp:139137
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/10568/139137
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maros Ivanic & Will Martin, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low‐income countries1," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 405-416, November.
    2. Just, Richard & Lutz, Ernst & Schmitz, Andrew & Turnovsky, Stephen, 1978. "The distribution of welfare gains from price stabilization : An international perspective," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 551-563, November.
    3. Gilles Quentin Kane & Gwladys Laure Mabah Tene & Jean Joël Ambagna & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & Fondo Sikod, 2015. "The impact of food price volatility on consumer welfare in Cameroon," WIDER Working Paper Series 013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Gilbert, Christopher L. & Christiaensen, Luc & Kaminski, Jonathan, 2017. "Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 119-132.
    5. Marc F. Bellemare & Christopher B. Barrett & David R. Just, 2013. "The Welfare Impacts of Commodity Price Volatility: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(4), pages 877-899.
    6. Derek D. Headey & William J. Martin, 2016. "The Impact of Food Prices on Poverty and Food Security," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 8(1), pages 329-351, October.
    7. Nicole M. Mason & Robert J. Myers, 2013. "The effects of the Food Reserve Agency on maize market prices in Zambia," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(2), pages 203-216, March.
    8. Abdelkrim Araar & Paolo Verme, 2019. "Prices and welfare: a comparative analysis of measures and computational methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1077-1101, October.
    9. Levin, Jörgen & Vimefall, Elin, 2015. "Welfare impact of higher maize prices when allowing for heterogeneous price increases," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-12.
    10. Gilles Quentin Kane & Gwladys Laure Mabah Tene & Jean Joël Ambagna & Isabelle Piot-Lepetit & Fondo Sikod, 2015. "The Impact of Food Price Volatility on Consumer Welfare in Cameroon," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2015-013, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will, 2008. "Implications of higher global food prices for poverty in low-income countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4594, The World Bank.
    12. Turnovsky, Stephen J & Shalit, Haim & Schmitz, Andrew, 1980. "Consumer's Surplus, Price Instability, and Consumer Welfare," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 135-152, January.
    13. Srinivasan, C.S. & Zanello, Giacomo & Nkegbe, Paul & Cherukuri, Radhika & Picchioni, Fiorella & Gowdru, Nithya & Webb, Patrick, 2020. "Drudgery reduction, physical activity and energy requirements in rural livelihoods," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    14. Burke, William J. & Myers, Robert J., 2014. "Spatial equilibrium and price transmission between Southern African maize markets connected by informal trade," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(P1), pages 59-70.
    15. Raaj Kumar Sah & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1987. "Price Scissors and the Structure of the Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 109-134.
    16. Christopher B. Barrett & Paul A. Dorosh, 1996. "Farmers' Welfare and Changing Food Prices: Nonparametric Evidence from Rice in Madagascar," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(3), pages 656-669.
    17. Emiliano Magrini & Jean Balié & Cristian Morales-Opazo, 2017. "Cereal price shocks and volatility in sub-Saharan Africa: what really matters for farmers’ welfare?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 48(6), pages 719-729, November.
    18. Arndt, Channing & Hussain, M. Azhar & Salvucci, Vincenzo & Østerdal, Lars Peter, 2016. "Effects of food price shocks on child malnutrition: The Mozambican experience 2008/2009," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 1-13.
    19. Timmer, C. Peter, 1989. "Food price policy : The rationale for government intervention," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 17-27, February.
    20. C.P. Adekunle & S.O. Akinbode & A.M. Shittu & S. Momoh, 2020. "Food price changes and farm households’ welfare in Nigeria: direct and indirect approach," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 409-425, January.
    21. Emma C. Stephens & Christopher B. Barrett, 2011. "Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(1), pages 1-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nakelse, Tebila & Dalton, Timothy J. & Hendricks, Nathan P. & Hodjo, Manzamasso, 2018. "Are smallholder farmers better or worse off from an increase in the international price of cereals?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 213-223.
    2. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.
    3. Salvucci, Vincenzo & Tarp, Finn, 2024. "Crises, prices, and poverty – An analysis based on the Mozambican household budget surveys 1996/97–2019/20," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    4. Rudolf, Robert, 2019. "The impact of maize price shocks on household food security: Panel evidence from Tanzania," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 40-54.
    5. Yu Na Lee, 2021. "Does Aversion to Price Risk Drive Migration? Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1268-1293, August.
    6. Krah, Kwabena, 2022. "Maize price variability, land use change, and forestloss: evidence from Ghana," 2024 Annual Meeting, July 28-30, New Orleans, LA 322247, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Durevall, Dick & van der Weide, Roy, 2014. "Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR," Working Papers in Economics 607, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    8. Dick Durevall & Roy Weide, 2017. "Importing High Food Prices by Exporting: Rice Prices in Lao PDR," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 164-181, February.
    9. Tschirley, David & Myers, Robert & Zavale, Helder, 2014. "MSU/FSG Study of the Impact of WFP Local and Regional Food Aid Procurement on Markets, Households, and Food Value Chains," Food Security International Development Working Papers 184835, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    10. Bellemare, Marc F. & Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna & Gitter, Seth R., 2018. "Foods and fads: The welfare impacts of rising quinoa prices in Peru," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 163-179.
    11. Amolegbe, Khadijat B. & Upton, Joanna & Bageant, Elizabeth & Blom, Sylvia, 2021. "Food price volatility and household food security: Evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Gómez, Miguel I. & Ricketts, Katie D., 2013. "Food value chain transformations in developing countries: Selected hypotheses on nutritional implications," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 139-150.
    13. Hanan G. Jacoby & Basab Dasgupta, 2014. "Household Exposure to Food Price Shocks in Rural Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 37(1-2), pages 83-100.
    14. Sami Bibi & Massa Coulibaly & John Cockburn & Luca Tiberti, 2009. "L'impact de la hausse des prix des produits alimentaires sur la pauvreté des enfants et les reponses politiques au Mali," Papers inwopa09/60, Innocenti Working Papers.
    15. Khadija Anjum & Leonora Angeles, 2025. "Farm workers’ food security during food price hikes: a political economy of landless rice-wheat farm labourers in Pakistan’s Punjab," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer;The Agriculture, Food, & Human Values Society (AFHVS), vol. 42(3), pages 1361-1378, September.
    16. Nora Lustig, 2009. "Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World," Working Papers 164, Center for Global Development.
    17. Alexander M. Danzer & Robert Grundke, 2016. "Coerced Labor in the Cotton Sector: How Global Commodity Prices (Don't) Transmit to the Poor," CESifo Working Paper Series 5937, CESifo.
    18. Balié, Jean & Minot, Nicholas & Valera, Harold Glenn A., 2021. "Distributional impacts of the rice tariffication policy in the Philippines," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 289-306.
    19. McBride, Linden, 2014. "Exploring food commodity price risk preferences among Tanzanian households," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 172437, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Derek Headey & Marie Ruel, 2023. "Food inflation and child undernutrition in low and middle income countries," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fpr:masspp:139137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifprius.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.