First-time home buyers and residential investment volatility
Like other macroeconomic variables, residential investment has become much less volatile since the mid-1980s (recent experience notwithstanding.) This paper explores the role of structural change in this decline. Since the early 1980s there have been many changes in the underlying structure of the economy, including those in the mortgage market which have made it easier to acquire a home. We examine how these changes affect residential investment volatility in a life-cycle model consistent with micro evidence on housing choices. We find that a decline in the rate of household formation, increased delay in marriage, and an increase in the cross-sectional variance of earnings drive the decline in volatility. Our findings provide support for the view that the “Great Moderation” in aggregate fluctuations is not just due to smaller aggregate shocks, but is driven at least in part by structural change.
|Date of creation:||2007|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.chicagofed.org/Email:
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/print_publication_order_form.cfm Email: |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1995.
"Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission,"
95-15, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," NBER Working Papers 5146, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Donald R. Haurin & Susan M. Wachter & Patric H. Hendershott, 1995. "Wealth Accumulation and Housing Choices of Young Households: An Exploratory Investigation," NBER Working Papers 5070, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul Willen, 2007.
"Do Households Benefit from Financial Deregulation and Innovation? The Case of the Mortgage Market,"
NBER Working Papers
12967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul Willen, 2006. "Do households benefit from financial deregulation and innovation?: the case of the mortgage market," Public Policy Discussion Paper 06-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Kristopher Gerardi & Harvey S. Rosen & Paul Willen, 2007. "Do Households Benefit from Financial Deregulation and Innovation? The Case of the Mortgage Market," Working Papers 61, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
- Wendy Edelberg, 2003. "Risk-based pricing of interest rates in household loan markets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Yoshiro Miwa & Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2004.
"Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate,"
CIRJE-F-312, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2009. "Accounting For Changes In The Homeownership Rate," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(3), pages 677-726, 08.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Papers 2007-034, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga, 2005. "Accounting for Changes in the Homeownership Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 304, Society for Computational Economics.
- Matthew Chambers & Carlos Garriga & Don E. Schlagenhauf, 2007. "Accounting for changes in the homeownership rate," Working Paper 2007-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Nezih Guner & John Knowles, 2002. "Why Do Women Wait? Matching, Wage Inequality, and the Incentives for Fertility Delay," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(4), pages 815-855, October.
- Dynan, Karen E. & Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Sichel, Daniel E., 2006.
"Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 123-150, January.
- Karen E. Dynan & Douglas W. Elmendorf & Daniel E. Sichel, 2005. "Can financial innovation help to explain the reduced volatility of economic activity?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-54, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2002.
"Recent U.S. macroeconomic stability: good policies, good practices or good luck?,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
730, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Shaghil Ahmed & Andrew Levin & Beth Anne Wilson, 2004. "Recent U.S. Macroeconomic Stability: Good Policies, Good Practices, or Good Luck?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(3), pages 824-832, August.
- Jonathan McCarthy & Richard W. Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 139-158.
- Ana Castaneda & Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 2003. "Accounting for the U.S. Earnings and Wealth Inequality," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(4), pages 818-857, August.
- Olivia S. Mitchell & John W.R. Phillips, 2006. "Social Security Replacement Rates for Alternative Earnings Benchmarks," Working Papers wp116, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
- Jeffrey R. Campbell & Zvi Hercowitz, 2004. "The role of households' collateralized debts in macroeconomic stabilization," Working Paper Series WP-04-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- John Ryding, 1990. "Housing finance and the transmission of monetary policy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sum, pages 42-55.
- Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
- Jonas D. M. Fisher & Saad Quayyum, 2006. "The great turn-of-the-century housing boom," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 29-44.
- Flodén, Martin, 2008.
"A note on the accuracy of Markov-chain approximations to highly persistent AR(1) processes,"
Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 516-520, June.
- Floden, Martin, 2007. "A Note on the Accuracy of Markov-Chain Approximations to Highly Persistent AR(1)-Processes," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 656, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Heathcote, Jonathan & Storesletten, Kjetil & Violante, Giovanni L, 2004. "The Cross-Sectional Implications of Rising Wage Inequality in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 4296, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dwight M. Jaffee & Kenneth T. Rosen, 1979. "Mortgage Credit Availability and Residential Construction," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 333-386.
- Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
- Zagorsky, Jay L, 1999. "Young Baby Boomers' Wealth," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 45(2), pages 135-56, June.
- R. Alton Gilbert, 1986. "Requiem for Regulation Q: what it did and why it passed away," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb, pages 22-37.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003.
"Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "The Credit Crunch," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(2), pages 205-248.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-07-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bernie Flores)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.