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The dynamics of labor market polarization

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Abstract

It has been well documented that the share of the working-age population employed in \"middle-skill\" occupations has been falling for some time, while the share in lower- and higher-skill jobs has been rising--i.e. \"polarization\" of the labor market (e.g. Autor 2010). However, the dynamics and related mechanism behind these employment trends are not fully understood; nor is it well understood what happens to workers who are displaced from middle-skill jobs. In this paper, I use data from the matched monthly CPS, the March CPS supplement, and the Displaced Worker Survey to answer two primary questions. First, into what employment states or occupations do unemployed persons who were formerly employed in low-, middle-, or high-skill occupations transition? Second, how have transitions between job types and employment states changed over time, and how have these changes contributed to trends in employment shares by job-type? I find that the decline in the share of workers in middle-skill jobs is due both to a decline in inflows into these jobs (particularly from non-employment and for younger workers) and because of a rise in outflows from these jobs (to non-employment and to other jobs); the increase in the share of workers in lower-skill jobs appears due to an increase in worker transitions from other job types (evident within all demographic groups); and the increase in the share of workers in higher-skill jobs appears due to an increase in worker transitions from other job types and is also somewhat compositional in nature (because there are more college-educated workers).

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher L. Smith, 2013. "The dynamics of labor market polarization," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-57
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Tamm, Marcus, 2018. "Training and changes in job Tasks," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 137-147.
    3. Genz, Sabrina & Schnabel, Claus, 2021. "Digging into the digital divide: Workers' exposure to digitalization and its consequences for individual employment," Discussion Papers 118, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Chair of Labour and Regional Economics.
    4. Wright, Scott A. & Schultz, Ainslie E., 2018. "The rising tide of artificial intelligence and business automation: Developing an ethical framework," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 61(6), pages 823-832.
    5. Cortes, Guido Matias & Jaimovich, Nir & Nekarda, Christopher J. & Siu, Henry E., 2020. "The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs: A flows approach," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    6. vom Lehn, Christian, 2020. "Labor market polarization, the decline of routine work, and technological change: A quantitative analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 62-80.
    7. Gunther Tichy, 2021. "Polarisierung der Gesellschaft in Österreich?," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(1), pages 41-61.
    8. Delaporte, Isaure & Peña, Werner, 2025. "The dynamics of disappearing routine jobs in Chile: An analysis of the link between deroutinisation and informality," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    9. Shim, Myungkyu & Yang, Hee-Seung, 2016. "New stylized facts on occupational employment and their implications: Evidence from consistent employment data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 402-415.

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