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Tariffs, Stablecoins, and the Demand for Dollars

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  • Anantha Divakaruni
  • Peter Zimmerman

Abstract

Several studies have shown that aggregate demand for US dollars fell following the announcement of tariffs by the US government on April 2, 2025. Using data on stablecoins as a proxy for dollar trading, we find that the decline in dollar demand is smaller for investors in countries that saw larger increases in tariffs. Our interpretation is that, as foreign investors anticipate that tariffs will make it more expensive to acquire US dollars in the future, they buy dollars today. This channel is stronger for more liquid stablecoins and for countries with tighter capital controls, consistent with the idea that, when actual dollars are hard to acquire, stablecoins may be regarded as a substitute. Our findings cast light on the effects of the tariffs on global foreign exchange markets, as well as on the degree to which stablecoins are considered a close substitute for dollars.

Suggested Citation

  • Anantha Divakaruni & Peter Zimmerman, 2025. "Tariffs, Stablecoins, and the Demand for Dollars," Working Papers 25-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwq:101529
    DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-202521
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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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