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Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time

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Abstract

Economic researchers and forecasters face the difficult task of differentiating the effects of tariffs on consumer prices from the effects of other factors—such as inflation expectations, supply chain disruptions, labor market tightness, and energy prices—which may influence prices independently. The methods available for this task in the economics literature, however, are not suitable for assessing tariffs' effects on consumer prices in real time.

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  • Robert Minton & Mariano A. Somale, 2025. "Detecting Tariff Effects on Consumer Prices in Real Time," FEDS Notes 2025-05-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2025-05-09
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3786
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