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Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis

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  • Brito, Márcio Holland de
  • Vieira, Flávio Vilela
  • Silva, Cleomar Gomes da
  • Bottecchia Filho, Luiz Carlos Tadeu

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the role of real effective exchange rate volatility on long-run economic growth for a set of 82 advanced and emerging economies using a panel data set ranging from 1970 to 2009. With an accurate measure for exchange rate volatility, the results for the two-step system GMM panel growth models show that a more (less) volatile RER has significant negative (positive) impact on economic growth and the results are robust for different model specifications. In addition to that, exchange rate stability seems to be more important to foster long-run economic growth than exchange rate misalignment

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  • Brito, Márcio Holland de & Vieira, Flávio Vilela & Silva, Cleomar Gomes da & Bottecchia Filho, Luiz Carlos Tadeu, 2011. "Growth and exchange rate volatility: a panel data analysis," Textos para discussão 296, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:eesptd:296
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    Cited by:

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    2. Márcio Holland, 2014. "Managing Capital Inflows in Brazil," MIT Press Book Chapters, in: What Have We Learned? Macroeconomic Policy After the Crisis, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 289-306, The MIT Press.
    3. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 15-38.
    4. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2017. "Sources of Economic Growth in Zambia: An Empirical Investigation," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(2), pages 275-290, April.
    5. Tang, Bo, 2015. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    6. Fourie, Justin & Pretorius, Theuns & Harvey, Rhett & Henrico, Van Niekerk & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 74671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Uddin, Md Akther & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "War and peace: why is political stability pivotal for economic growth of OIC countries?," MPRA Paper 71678, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Kizito Uyi Ehigiamusoe & Hooi Hooi Lean, 2019. "Influence of Real Exchange Rate on the Finance-Growth Nexus in the West African Region," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Chirwa, Themba G. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2016. "What Drives Long-Run Economic Growth? Empirical Evidence from South Africa," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 429-456.
    10. Uddin, Md Akther & Ali, Md Hakim & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Political stability and growth: An application of dynamic GMM and quantile regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 610-625.
    11. Porcile, Gabriel & Sartorello Spinola, Danilo & Yajima, Giuliano, 2020. "Patterns of growth in structuralist models: The role of the real exchange rate and industrial policy," MERIT Working Papers 2020-027, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    12. Goodness C. Aye & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The effect of real exchange rate volatility on income distribution in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-29, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    13. Themba G Chirwa & NM Odhiambo, 2019. "An Empirical Test Of Exogenous Growth Models: Evidence From Three Southern African Countries," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 64(220), pages 7-38, January –.
    14. Nsofor Ebele Sabina & Takon Samuel Manyo & Ugwuegbe Sebastine Ugochukwu, 2017. "Modeling Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 2(6), pages 88-97, June.
    15. Hussaini Umaru & Aguda Niyi A. & Nordiana Osagie Davies, 2018. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth of West African English-Speaking Countries," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 8(4), pages 131-143, October.
    16. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2020. "Corruption and equity market performance: International comparative evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    17. Aihua Wang & Faruk Balli & Xiumin Li, 2015. "Possible Best Currency Basket Selection from the Perspective of Real Effective Exchange Rate," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 635-650, October.
    18. Babu Rao G., 2019. "Exchange rate regimes and its impact on growth: An empirical analysis of BRICS countries," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(2(619), S), pages 157-172, Summer.
    19. Kenny S, Victoria, 2019. "Exchange Rate Management and Economic Growth: An FMOLS Approach," MPRA Paper 93125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Cleomar Gomes da silva & Flavio V. Vieira, 2016. "Monetary policy decision making: the role of ideology, institutions and central bank independence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2051-2062.
    21. Cecilia Bermúdez & Carlos Dabús, 2018. "Going under to stay on top: How much real exchange rate undervaluation is needed to boost growth in developing countries," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 45(1 Year 20), pages 5-28, June.

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