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Does Heat Cause Homicides? A Meta-Analysis

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  • Vojtech Misak

    (Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Prague)

Abstract

Several studies provide evidence that heat is positively associated with criminal activity. However, the empirical literature does not provide conclusive evidence about the effect of high temperature on homicides. I examine 156 estimates from 20 studies on the relationship between temperature and homicide rates. In particular, in this meta-analysis I study publication bias using linear and nonlinear techniques together with Bayesian model averaging to explain the heterogeneity in the estimates. After correcting estimates from the publication bias, I find no significant effect of temperature on homicide rates. Moreover, monthly data produce larger estimates. Conversely, studies using data from Asia or the OLS estimation method lead to smaller estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vojtech Misak, 2023. "Does Heat Cause Homicides? A Meta-Analysis," Working Papers IES 2023/06, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Mar 2023.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2023_06
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    environmental law and economics; economic analysis of crime; meta-analysis; Bayesian model averaging; publication bias;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K10 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - General (Constitutional Law)
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K32 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Energy, Environmental, Health, and Safety Law
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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