An evaluation of the EU's Fifth Enlargement With special focus on Bulgaria and Romania
This paper analyses the impact of the EU accession of Bulgaria and Romania. The fifth EU enlargement in 2004 and 2007 did not only extend the Single European Market. Since 2009, the euro zone encompasses 16 out of 27 EU member states. Additionally the Schengen area has been expanded to include 25 European countries (22 EU member states). A first evaluation shows that the new member countries have already been able to benefit noticeably from their participation in the single market, despite not yet fully integrated labour markets. However, the international financial crisis also shadows onto the economies of the new member states. After an ex post evaluation the possible future integration effects of EU's 2007 enlargement by Bulgaria and Romania are simulated with a simple macro-economic integration model able to encompass as many of the theoretically predicted integration effects possible. The direct integration effects of Bulgaria and Romania spill-over to EU15, including Austria and the 10 new member states of the 2004 EU enlargement. The pattern of the integration effects is qualitatively similar to those of EU's 2004 enlargement by 10 new member states. Bulgaria and Romania gain much more from EU accession than the incumbents in the proportion of 20:1. In the medium-run up to 2020, Bulgaria and Romania can expect a sizable overall integration gain, amounting to an additional Â½ percentage point real GDP growth per annum. Within the incumbent EU member states Austria will gain somewhat more (+0.05%) than the average of EU15 (+0.02%) and the 10 new EU member states (+0.01%), which joined the EU in 2004.Â
|Date of creation:||Mar 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric W. Bond & Raymond G. Riezman & Constantinos Syropoulos, 2013.
"A strategic and welfare theoretic analysis of free trade areas,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 8, pages 101-127
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Bond, Eric W. & Riezman, Raymond G. & Syropoulos, Constantinos, 2004. "A strategic and welfare theoretic analysis of free trade areas," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-27, October.
- George J. Borjas, 1995.
"The Economic Benefits from Immigration,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 3-22, Spring.
- Harald Badinger, 2005. "Growth Effects of Economic Integration: Evidence from the EU Member States," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 50-78, April.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- John Kennan & Raymond Riezman, 2013.
"Optimal Tariff Equilibria with Customs Unions,"
World Scientific Book Chapters,
in: International Trade Agreements and Political Economy, chapter 5, pages 53-66
World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
- Ansgar Belke & Julia Spies, 2007.
"Enlarging the EMU to the east: What effects on trade?,"
Ruhr Economic Papers
0021, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
- Ansgar Belke & Julia Spies, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the east: what effects on trade?," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 369-389, September.
- Belke, Ansgar & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Alessandra Casella, 1995.
"Large Countries, Small Countries, and the Enlargement of Trade Blocs,"
NBER Working Papers
5365, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Casella, Alessandra, 1996. "Large countries, small countries and the enlargement of trade blocs," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 389-415, February.
- Casella, Alessandra, 1996. "Large Countries, Small Countries and the Enlargement of Trade Blocs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1320, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Harald Badinger, 2007. "Has the EU's Single Market Programme Fostered Competition? Testing for a Decrease in Mark-up Ratios in EU Industries," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 497-519, 08.
- Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: a comprehensive welfare assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 865-888, October.
- Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade's Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, 07.
- Baldwin, Richard E. & Venables, Anthony J., 1995. "Regional economic integration," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1597-1644 Elsevier.
- David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
- Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2008. "Trade and productivity: an industry perspective," Empirica, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 213-231, April.
- Fritz Breuss, 2007.
"Globalization, EU Enlargement and Income Distribution,"
FIW Working Paper series
- Fritz Breuss, 2010. "Globalisation, EU enlargement and income distribution," International Journal of Public Policy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(1/2), pages 16-34.
- Fritz Breuss, 2007. "Globalization, EU Enlargement and Income Distribution," WIFO Working Papers 296, WIFO.
- Kemp, Murray C. & Wan, Henry Jr., 1976. "An elementary proposition concerning the formation of customs unions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-97, February.
- Fritz Breuss, 2002. "Benefits and Dangers of EU Enlargement," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 245-274, September.
- Richardson, Martin, 1995. "On the Interpretation of the Kemp/Wan Theorem," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 696-703, October.
- Corden, W M, 1972. "Economies of Scale and Customs Union Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 80(3), pages 465-75, May-June.
- Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2004. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU : A Comprehensive Welfare Assessment," HWWA Discussion Papers 260, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
- Rivera-Batiz, Luis A & Romer, Paul M, 1991.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 531-55, May.
- Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2009. "Country size and the trade effects of the euro," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(2), pages 207-223, July.
- Harald Badinger & Fritz Breuss, 2006. "Country Size and the Gains from Trade Bloc Enlargement: an Empirical Assessment for the European Community," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(4), pages 615-631, 09.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0361. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.