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Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap

Author

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  • Sutirtha Roy
  • Martin Kessler
  • Arvind Subramanian

Abstract

This paper suggests a reinterpretation of global growth—encompassing notions of unconditional convergence and the middle income trap—in the past 50 years through the lens of growth theory. Two modes of convergence are studied: a classic “Solow†model where poorer countries catch up by growing faster on average; and a new “Wilde†model where catch-up growth is interpreted as growing faster than the frontier country, the United States. These modes to both countries and people as units of analysis. There is a convergence has occurred faster and began earlier than widely believed [Working Paper 438].

Suggested Citation

  • Sutirtha Roy & Martin Kessler & Arvind Subramanian, 2016. "Glimpsing the End of Economic History? Unconditional Convergence and the Missing Middle Income Trap," Working Papers id:11404, eSocialSciences.
    • Handle: RePEc:ess:wpaper:id:11404
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Anshuman Kamila & Meeta Keswani Mehra, 2021. "EXPLORING THE CONVERGENCE PUZZLE IN INDIA Combining neoclassical and endogenous models to understand growth experience of Indian states," IEG Working Papers 421, Institute of Economic Growth.
    3. Patel, Dev & Sandefur, Justin & Subramanian, Arvind, 2021. "The new era of unconditional convergence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    4. Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "In Defence of the Endogenous Growth Theory: "Conditional" and "Unconditional" Convergence in Two-Country AK Models," MPRA Paper 115092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Lekha Chakraborty & Pinaki Chakraborty, 2018. "Federalism, fiscal asymmetries and economic convergence: evidence from Indian States," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 83-113, April.
    6. Michael Kremer & Jack Willis & Yang You, 2021. "Converging to Convergence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2021, volume 36, pages 337-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ikhenaode, Bright Isaac & Parello, Carmelo Pierpaolo, 2022. "Migration, technology diffusion and convergence in a two-country AK Growth Model," MPRA Paper 115340, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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