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On the time-varying links between oil and gold: New insights from the rolling and recursive rolling approaches

Author

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  • Mehmet Balcilar

    (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University)

  • Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir

    (Gazi University, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Muhammad Shahbaz

    (Montpellier Business School, Montpelier, France)

Abstract

This study analyzes the dynamic linkages between oil and gold prices for the spot and 1- to 12-month futures markets using monthly data over the period 1983-2016. To do this, we use the rolling and recursive rolling Granger causality approaches. The distinguishing feature of this study from the previous studies is that this is the first study investigating the causal links between oil and gold using time-varying causality tests. The findings show that the causality links between oil and gold display strong time variation. Although causal links are not detected for most of the study period, strong bi-directional or unidirectional causality is found in several subsamples. The duration of the periods with causality links vary from a few months to three years, while the duration for the non-causality periods might be 15 years long. By date-stamping the causality links between oil and gold, our paper discovers that causality from oil to gold is related to large oil price changes, while causality from gold to oil is related to large financial crises. The evidence obtained in the paper points out the dangers of assuming a constant causality link between oil and gold markets because these links might break down unexpectedly.

Suggested Citation

  • Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2018. "On the time-varying links between oil and gold: New insights from the rolling and recursive rolling approaches," Working Papers 15-35, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:emu:wpaper:15-35.pdf
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    Cited by:

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    3. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from a large panel of 45 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
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    6. Udi Joshua & Festus V. Bekun & Samuel A. Sarkodie, 2020. "New Insight into the Causal Linkage between Economic Expansion, FDI, Coal consumption, Pollutant emissions and Urbanization in South Africa," Working Papers 20/011, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan & Gkillas, Konstantinos, 2020. "Gold-oil dependence dynamics and the role of geopolitical risks: Evidence from a Markov-switching time-varying copula model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Fed’s unconventional monetary policy and risk spillover in the US financial markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 42-52.
    9. Libo Yin, 2022. "The role of intermediary capital risk in predicting oil volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 401-416, January.
    10. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Bedriye Tunçsiper & Huseyin Ozdemir & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2020. "On the nexus among carbon dioxide emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in G-7 countries: new insights from the historical decomposition approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 8097-8134, December.
    11. Golitsis, Petros & Gkasis, Pavlos & Bellos, Sotirios K., 2022. "Dynamic spillovers and linkages between gold, crude oil, S&P 500, and other economic and financial variables. Evidence from the USA," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Sofia Karagiannopoulou & Konstantina Ragazou & Ioannis Passas & Alexandros Garefalakis & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2023. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Volatility of Cryptocurrencies," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, March.
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    14. Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2021. "A note on oil price shocks and the forecastability of gold realized volatility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(21), pages 1889-1897, December.
    15. Khan, Asad Ul Islam & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Napari, Ayuba, 2023. "Subsample stability, change detection and dynamics of oil and metal markets: A recursive approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    16. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "The (Asymmetric) effect of El Niño and La Niña on gold and silver prices in a GVAR model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Hung, Ngo Thai & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Directional spillover effects and time-frequency nexus between oil, gold and stock markets: Evidence from pre and during COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Gold and oil prices; Time-varying Granger causality; Rolling estimation; Recursive rolling estimation.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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