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Do Walmartians Ruled? The political power of an emerging middle class in Mexico


  • Hector J. Villarreal
  • Ricardo Cantú


This paper questions if an increase in consumption of durable goods -such as electric appliances, associated in the media with an emerging middle class- could have aided the incumbent party to retain the Mexican presidency in 2006 -again, associated in the media with the backing of the economic model by voters. Important data limitations forced to employ indirect tests of these and to rely on correlations rather than causalities -with the associated identification problems. Nonetheless, it was not able to reject the hypothesis alluded. Though, in a tight election, a small effect could make the difference, and this analysis suggests that this very probably happened.

Suggested Citation

  • Hector J. Villarreal & Ricardo Cantú, "undated". "Do Walmartians Ruled? The political power of an emerging middle class in Mexico," Working Papers 20081, Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Políticas Públicas, Campus Monterrey, revised Jun 2007.
  • Handle: RePEc:egb:wpaper:20081

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Héctor J. Villarreal, 2006. "An Intertemporal Comparison of Income and Welfare for Two Mexican Regions," Working Papers 20062, Escuela de Graduados en Administración Pública y Políticas Públicas, Campus Monterrey, revised Jul 2006.
    2. Geoffrey Soutar & Steven Cornish-Ward, 1997. "Ownership patterns for durable goods and financial assets: a Rasch analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 903-911.
    3. Eduardo Lora & Ugo Panizza, 2002. "Structural Reforms in Latin America under Scrutiny," Research Department Publications 4303, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Avinash Dixit & John Londregan, 1998. "Ideology, Tactics, and Efficiency in Redistributive Politics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(2), pages 497-529.
    5. Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Janvry, Alain de & Davis, Benjamin, 2001. "Cash Transfer Programs with Income Multipliers: PROCAMPO in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1056, June.
    6. Jere R. Behrman & Susan W. Parker & Petra E. Todd, 2005. "Long-Term Impacts of the Oportunidades Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Rural Youth in Mexico," Ibero America Institute for Econ. Research (IAI) Discussion Papers 122, Ibero-America Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2004. "What makes reforms likely: Political economy determinants of reforms in Latin America," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 7, pages 99-135, May.
    8. Nancy Birdsall, 2002. "From Social Policy to an Open-Economy Social Contract in Latin America," Working Papers 21, Center for Global Development.
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    More about this item


    Mexico; Walmartians; middle-class; middle class; elections; 2006; durable goods; electric appliances;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • I30 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being

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