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Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices

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  • Kazuhiko Ohashi
  • Tatsuyoshi Okimoto

Abstract

We investigate how the excess comovement of commodity prices, that is, the correlation in commodity returns after filtering out common fundamental shocks, has changed over the past three decades by developing the smooth-transition dynamic conditional correlation model that can capture long-run trends and short-run dynamics of correlation simultaneously. Using data from 1983 to 2011, we find that significant increasing longrun trends in excess comovement have appeared since around 2000. We confirm that these increasing trends are neither an artifact of the financial crisis after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 nor the time-varying sensitivities of commodity returns to common fundamental shocks. Moreover, we find that no significant increasing trends exist in the excess comovement among off-index commodities and that the surge of global demand alone cannot explain the increasing trends. These findings provide additional evidence for the timing and scope of the recent increasing commodity-return correlations that suggest the influence of the financialization of commodity markets starting around 2000.

Suggested Citation

  • Kazuhiko Ohashi & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2016. "Increasing Trends in the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," CAMA Working Papers 2016-09, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-09
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:eee:energy:v:166:y:2019:i:c:p:577-586 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:jocoma:v:6:y:2017:i:c:p:66-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nguyen, Duc Binh Benno & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2017. "Jumps in Commodity Markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-615, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    4. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano & Lamonaca, Emilia & Contò, Francesco & Stasi, Antonio & Nardone, Gianluca, 2017. "Drivers of grain price volatility: a cursory critical review," MPRA Paper 79427, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Fethke, Tobias & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2018. "Is Commodity Index Investing Profitable?," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-635, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    6. repec:eee:jocoma:v:13:y:2019:i:c:p:55-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bao H. NGUYEN & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & Trung Duc TRAN, 2019. "Uncertainty-Dependent and Sign-Dependent Effects of Oil Market Shocks," Discussion papers 19042, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    8. Esposti, Roberto, 2017. "What Makes Commodity Prices Move Together? An Answer From A Dynamic Factor Model," 2017 International Congress, August 28-September 1, 2017, Parma, Italy 260889, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    excess comovement; commodity return; time-varying correlation; smooth transition; regime change; financialization;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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