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Gas Storage Valuation Under Limited Market Liquidity: An Application In Germany

  • Bastian Felix

    ()

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Oliver Woll

    ()

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Christoph Weber

    ()

    (Chair for Management Sciences and Energy Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen)

Natural gas storages may be valuated by applying real options theory. However it is crucial, not to ignore that most evolving gas spot markets, like the German spot market, lack of liquidity. In this context, considering storage operators as price takers does not account for interdependencies of storage operations and market prices. This paper offers a novel approach to storage valuation taking into account the effect of management decisions on market prices. The within this paper proposed methodology determines the optimal production schedule and value by determining the stochastic differential equation describing the storage value and then applying a finite difference scheme. We find that limited liquidity lowers the storage value and reduces withdrawal and injection amounts. Further, we observe decreasing reservation prices for injection and withdrawing for growing illiquidity resulting in a left shift of injection and withdrawing threshold prices.

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File URL: http://www.wiwi.uni-due.de/fileadmin/fileupload/BWL-ENERGIE/Arbeitspapiere/RePEc/pdf/wp0903_2_GasStorageValuationUnderLimitedMarketLiquidity.pdf
File Function: First version, 2009
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Paper provided by University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics in its series EWL Working Papers with number 0903.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision: Oct 2009
Handle: RePEc:dui:wpaper:0903
Contact details of provider: Postal: Universitätsstrasse 12, 45117 Essen
Phone: 0201 - 183 3633
Fax: 0201 - 183 2292
Web page: http://www.ewl.wiwi.uni-due.de

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  1. Hahn, Warren J. & Dyer, James S., 2008. "Discrete time modeling of mean-reverting stochastic processes for real option valuation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 534-548, January.
  2. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
  3. Brennan, Michael J. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1996. "Market microstructure and asset pricing: On the compensation for illiquidity in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 441-464, July.
  4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-47.
  5. Hall, Anthony D. & Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2007. "Modelling the buy and sell intensity in a limit order book market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 249-286, August.
  6. Vayanos, Dimitri, 1998. "Transaction Costs and Asset Prices: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 1-58.
  7. Christoph Weber & Oliver Woll, 2007. "Portfolio Optimization In Electricity Trading With Limited Liquidity," EWL Working Papers 0702, University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair for Management Science and Energy Economics, revised Jul 2007.
  8. Ghysels, Eric & Pereira, Jo√£o Pedro, 2008. "Liquidity and conditional portfolio choice: A nonparametric investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 679-699, September.
  9. Glenn W. Boyle & Graeme A. Guthrie, 2003. "Investment, Uncertainty, and Liquidity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(5), pages 2143-2166, October.
  10. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt43n1k4jb, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
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